Earlier today, the Bank of England’s 9-member Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.75%. It also kept its Asset Purchase Target unchanged at £435 billion together with its £10 billion Corporate Bond Target. Before the announcement, analysts suggested that the vote could be 5-4, as two members signaled their willingness to ease interest rates as an insurance policy for a slowing global economy and uncertainty over the Brexit transition period.

Yesterday, UK PM Boris Johnson was faced with his first parliamentary defeat since the December election that granted him an overwhelming majority. The House of Lords, which is the unelected upper house of Parliament, is where he suffered not one but three defeats in one day. More is expected today as the Brexit bill is being amended. Given the 80+ majority Johnson’s Tories command in the lower house, the House of Lords is the only way for pro-EU members to attempt to force minor concessions.

After PM Johnson secured an 80 seat majority in Parliament, the UK is set to leave the EU by January 31st 2020. This brings another Brexit deadline into play, the transition period, which will end on December 31st 2020. PM Johnson will introduce a bill, widely expected to pass, which will make an extension of the transition period illegal. This could lead to a no-deal Brexit in just over twelve months. During the transition period, the UK is still under the EU framework without representation in Brussels. After the transition period, the UK is free to chart its course.

With less than two days before UK voters head yet again to vote, PM Johnson’s Conservatives hold on to a narrowing lead. Just weeks ago it appeared that Johnson will ride to victory with a double-digit lead over Corbyn’s Labour party, but some polls show the majority slipping away. Memories of 2017 come to mind, then-PM May called early elections in the hope to secure a more sizeable majority. She ended up losing her majority, fast-forward two years, and we may be looking at yet another uncertain outcome.

PM Johnson managed to get his December 12th election on the second attempt after the Labour party dropped its opposition. This marks only the third-time in modern UK political history that election are held in the winter, but many saw this as the only way to break the impasse. The socialist Labour Party, the pro-EU Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party will try to win seats from Johnson’s Tories, but polls favor a big win for the Conservatives. A lot of things can change over the next six weeks and the British Pound will likely face volatile and uncertain times.

Another delay is in the process of being formalized. The length of the extension is three months in order to give the UK time to implement the PM Johnson’s Brexit deal which received majority support in Parliament. France wanted a shorter extension than most other members prefer. UK PM Johnson is pushing for an election on December 12th while two opposition parties, the SNP and the Liberal Democrats, push for an election even sooner.

In less than 48 hours the EU summit will start and both sides are racing to put a deal together. Boris Johnson, the British PM, wants to have a deal by the end of the summit which he can take back to Parliament. He has urged MPs to back any deal he will bring back from Brussels so that the UK can finally deliver on the Brexit referendum and leave on October 31st 2019. Optimism is now on the rise and after the British Pound reached a three-month high it started to pull back as time is running out.

According to “The Spectator”, Brexit talks are on the verge to collapse. The magazine cited an unnamed source close to the government of UK PM Johnson which stated that pessimism is high and that preparations for a collapse of negotiation are being made. The source blamed Irish PM Leo Varadkar for failing to make concessions on the Irish border issues after UK Parliament took a no deal Brexit off the table. The source stated “Those who pushed the Benn Act intended to sabotage a deal and they’ve probably succeeded.

Earlier today UK PM Johnson published his Brexit deal which replaced the Irish backstop which was the main stumbling block in the existing deal negotiated by his predecessor May and rejected three times in parliament. He has made a major concession to the EU with his proposal that all Northern Ireland will follow EU rules on manufactured goods and agriculture. In order to the get DUP on board, his plan allows Northern Ireland to decide by 2025 if they want continue following EU rules or adapt UK ones.

Earlier this morning the UK Supreme Court ruled that PM Johnson’s suspension of Parliament was unlawful. According to the 11 justices, PM Johnson gave Queen Elizabeth II unlawful advice to suspend Parliament for the Queens Speech. This hindered elected officials to perform their democratic duty, as of the ruling. PM Johnson responded after the verdict that “Obviously this is a verdict that we will respect and we respect the judicial process. I have to say that I strongly disagree with what the justices have found.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson lost his sixth vote in Parliament after his second attempt to call an early election failed to satisfy the require majority. He final vote was 293-46 in favor of an early election, but the opposition Labour party abstained and Speaker John Bercow declared that the majority didn’t meet the requirements of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. PM Johnson stated “I earlier urged the house to trust the people. But once again, the opposition think they know better.” A two-third majority is required in order to call for early elections.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing a key vote this evening in Parliament as rebels from within his own party are expected to join ranks with the opposition in order to thwart a no deal Brexit. The UK is now scheduled to leave on October 31st 2019 and PM Johnson stated that he will not ask for an extension. He vowed to deliver Brexit to the people and honor the results of the 2016 referendum where 52% voted to leave the EU. Most recent polls suggest that the number rose to 56% after Johnson took over as prime minister only a few weeks ago.

With the clock ticking down to October 31st 2019, the date UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised to take the UK out of the EU, deal or no-deal, he made his first public attempt to get the EU back to the negotiating table. The biggest issue which has prevented progress remains the Irish border, the only land border the UK will share with the EU. The land border would run between the Republic of Ireland, part of the EU, and North Ireland which is part of the UK.

The US offered the UK a quick sector-by-sector trade deal after a no-deal Brexit is complete. This will help cushion any negative impacts of the transition period which the majority of economists predict as chaotic. UK Prime Minster Boris Johnson stated time and again that the UK will be fully prepared for a no-deal Brexit and has instructed civil servants to prepare the public in order to have a smooth exit from the EU without the negative deal his predecessor Theresa May negotiated.

After winning the leadership race with a 2-1 majority, Boris Johnson became the new Prime Minister of the UK and which now has its first Brexit cabinet after the referendum. The extended Brexit data stands at October 31st 2019, but the EU stated it is willing to extend again. This is something Prime Minister Johnson has ruled out as he promised to deliver on Brexit and move the country forward. He has less than 100 days to deliver. With less than 24 hours in his new job, he wasted no time to reshuffle the cabinet and install pro-Brexit ministers during his purge.

As the EU is scheduled to vote for Ursula von der Leyen as the next President of the European Commission and the UK is on track to announce its next Prime Minister, tensions during the latest round of Brexit negotiations have risen. According to sources, talks between EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier and UK Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay have been the most hostile since 2016. The EU is preparing for a rise in tension as the bloc prepares for the Premiership of Boris Johnson who vowed to deliver on Brexit by October 31st 2019 and is prepared for a WTO type deal.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has been resilient in her premiership and was able to hold on so far, but it was only a matter of time until she would travel to the end of her road. Today she is facing another showdown in Parliament after cross-party talks to reach a Brexit deal compromise with the Labour Party broke down. May will now try to win over rebel Labour MP’s in order to have enough voted to pass her much hated Brexit deal after it was voted down three times before.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May scored a minor political victory as a panel of important Tory MP’s decided to keep the rules on a leadership challenge unchanged. As more members from her own party seek to replace her, especially since she reached out to Marxist opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn, May is trying to see through a Brexit compromise which can be passed by Parliament. Her hated Brexit deal which she negotiated with the EU over the past two years was rejected three times and was the sole issue which united politicians from all parties.

UK Prime Minister May and opposition leader Corbyn have suggested that they may be close to reaching a Brexit compromise which could have enough parliamentary support to pass. Despite the extended deadline until October 31st 2019 to leave the EU, the race is on in order to deliver Brexit by May 22nd 2019. This is the eve of EU parliamentary elections which the UK wants to avoid as May herself stated it would not be right for the UK to participate in shaping the next EU government as the UK is preparing an exit from the world’s largest trading bloc.

As politicians in the UK return from the long Easter holiday weekend, they will have to face the same unresolved issues surrounding Brexit and how Prime Minister Theresa May is handling or mishandling the process. The UK was initially scheduled to leave the world’s largest trading block on March 29th 2019 which was then extended to April 12th 2019. While Brexit has divided the country, it has united it against the deal May negotiated with the EU over the past two plus years.

The EU agreed to extend Brexit until October 31st 2019 amid a compromise reached. UK Prime Minister May asked for an extension until June 30th 2019 while European Council President Donald Tusk argued for a much longer extension hoping for a Brexit reversal. French President Macron remained the sole opposition and stated that a delay past June 30th 2019 would harm the EU. In the end he gave in an agreed to the October 31st extended deadline, but the UK may leave prior to that if UK Parliament can agree on May’s Brexit deal.

The House of Commons voted on a bill yesterday which makes the even of a no-deal Brexit less likely. The measure passed by a single vote, 313-312. PM May voted against the bill, but she did reach out to opposition leader Corbyn, the Marxist leader of the Labour Party, in order to seek a Brexit compromise which will win over enough votes to pass a Brexit deal before May 22nd 2019. The EU stated that cross-party talks between May and Corbyn are a positive development as Corbyn seeks a soft Brexit which includes a customs union with trading bloc.

Late yesterday evening the UK Parliament voted 329-302 in order to take control over Brexit. The UK was supposed to leave this Friday, March 29th 2019, but is now more likely to depart on May 22nd 2019. This would be on the eve of EU Parliamentary elections and the absolute last date possible for the UK to depart, according to numerous EU officials. This has opened the door to a potentially much softer Brexit and close ties to the EU, which would go against the results of the 2016 referendum.

It is safe to state that the next few weeks before the official March 29th deadline will be chaotic. UK Prime Minister May was unable to push her hated Brexit deal through Parliament on two occasions and Parliament Speaker John Bercow told May that she can’t have a third vote on the same deal. This means in order for her to get a vote in Parliament, fundamental changes in the current deal need to be implemented.

Later on today the UK Parliament is set to vote on the Brexit deal which May has tried to modify following her historic defeat week’s earlier. The UK and EU have been in heated discussions, but UK officials emerged late Sunday and labeled the negotiations “deadlocked” as the EU refuses to make changes to the Irish backstop issue at the heart of the current impasse. Yesterday some MP’s urged May to scrap this evening’s vote as not enough changes have been secured from the deal which was voted down.

Three people familiar with the latest rounds of Brexit negotiations on Tuesday stated that the EU is very pessimistic that a deal can be reached. The biggest fear on the EU side is that no matter what concessions they decide to give May, who brought in Attorney General Geoffrey Cox to find a solution to the Irish border backstop issue, will not be enough to win a majority for the deal in Parliament. The EU doesn’t want to give in to their entrenched position unless they are sure it will result in a deal.

March 29th 2019 is supposed to be the day the UK will leave the European Union and deliver to voters of the 2016 Brexit referendum what they demanded. Then PM Cameron resigned and May took the top spot in UK politics. She herself voter remain and many saw her unfit to deliver on the result of the referendum. During her premiership she had to fight battle after battle which she lost in most cases. UK politics has been divided under her leadership, or as some call it lack thereof, and even her own party is split.

Time continues to tick down and there has been no progress made on Brexit. Some analysts have waited for any catalyst which may change the current deadlock and a small number believe that the Brexit process may have just received what they were looking for. Two events in UK politics which may change the face of the Labour party, its Brexit approach and in the same process a new political party may rise. A lot of moving parts in the fragile, divided political arena started to move a lot faster and recent developments only add momentum as well as more uncertainty.

The House of Commons will vote this evening, yet again, on a series of amendments to Brexit. Depending on the outcome of this evening’s votes, forex traders will hopefully get a clearer picture on the path of Brexit and the implications for the British Pound. Yesterday evening, Prime Minister May abandoned her Brexit deal which she negotiated with the EU over an 18 month period after she lost the vote by a record amount. She tried until yesterday to win concessions, but has now changed course and is backing a proposal by pro-Brexit lawmakers to rewrite the deal.

Delays, defeats and deadlines have been the norm since Prime Minister May brought back a deal from Brussels almost nobody in Parliament supports. Today’s vote was scheduled for last month, but May pulled it as it was clear that she would suffer a great defeat. Today appears to be no different, but many are now waiting to see by how many votes she will actually lose in order to determine the next steps. The EU could give more concessions if May loses by less than 60 votes.

With less than 80 days to go before the UK will leave the European Union, UK Prime Minister May is no closer to get her Brexit deal approved in Parliament. She lost a vote in the House of Commons yesterday in regards to the timetable following an expected defeat on her Brexit deal on January 15th 2019. After the defeat, James Slack, May’s spokesperson stated that “Our intention has always been to respond quickly and provide certainty on the way forward in the event we lose. That is what we will do.”

Happy New Year! As traders will take a break from trading today due to the markets being closed, many will start to prepare their portfolios for the 2019 trading year which will kick off tomorrow. The following four themes are very likely to have an impact on price action across asset classes and every forex traders need to remain informed about them. One key area of focus will be the US-China trade war. Ripple effects have been felt around the global economy already and are likely to continue until it will be resolved.

British PM Theresa May survived the no confidence vote from her own Tory Party yesterday evening as 200 voted that they do have confidence in her while 117 voted that they have no confidence. This was more than enough for her to stay on as PM as there can’t be another no confidence vote for twelve months from her party. The opposition Labour Party may decide to push through a no confidence vote in her abilities which could lead to a new general election.

Brexit is 113 days away, but British Prime Minister Theresa May has only five days to get her Parliament to vote for her Brexit deal. It appears rather unlikely that she will be able to convince her own party to back her deal. May has deployed her Chief Whip, Julian Smith, in order to talk so called rebels into voting for May’s deal. The backdrop is that he comes empty handed which means there is little hope that those opposed to the deal will simply change their mind. They are against it for a reason and unless the reason changes, there is nothing there to change their mind.

The biggest news story in financial markets today is the chaos in which UK Prime Minister May found herself after announcing yesterday that the text for a draft agreement has been reached between the EU and the UK. While her press conference yesterday evening was lackluster, those few who cheered the text only had a few hours of joy. Today she was faced with more resignations from her inner circle in protest of her handling Brexit negotiations. The British Pound plunged this morning, but has started to stabilize near solid support levels following the initial knee-jerk reaction.

The UK labor market is very tight which explains today’s reported increase in average weekly earnings which expanded by 3.0% annualized for the three-month period ending in September. Excluding bonuses, the increase was reported at 3.2% annualized. This marked the fastest expansion since December 2008. The unemployment rate was reported at 4.1%, up from the previous month’s 43-year low of 4.0%. While wages are expanding, output per working hour is lagging and only expanded by 0.1% in the third-quarter while hours worked rose by 1.0%.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, never had an easy job from day one. Following the global financial crisis, the UK embarked on a path of austerity which squeezed the country as it tried to rebuild. Austerity measures remain in place, they are unpopular and are in the way of the UK economic expansion. After the Brexit vote, austerity became an even bigger burden. Now with the potential of a no deal Brexit and more economic uncertainty, all measures which may hinder the UK from reaching full economic potential must be removed.

With time running out for the EU and the UK to reach a Brexit compromise, some try to create the illusion that a such a compromise is imminent. This is very inaccurate and misleading. While both sides are entangled in negotiations in order to resolve what currently appears to be the biggest problem, the Irish border, even a compromise is far off. While officials acknowledge that some progress has been made, they warn that obstacles remain before a compromise may be reached.

As the annual Conservative Parry conference drew to a close last night, Theresa May entered the stage to the tunes of Abba’s “Dancing Queen” with a few moves and a smile of her own. Unlike last year, when had a cough which would not stop and a stage collapse to deal with amongst other things, she was able to enjoy one hour of calm as she delivered her closing speech. That is one hour in the past seventeen months where things seemed to go her way.

After UK Prime Minister Theresa May delivered a 10 minute dinner speech last night to her EU counterparts over dinner, the mood is not what many hoping for a Brexit deal would wish for. She asked for more concessions, especially when it comes to the Irish border issue, in order to convince many in her own party that the Brexit deal negotiated is a good one. EU leaders showed no signs of giving concessions to May and the UK and in general struck a pessimistic tone on Thursday in Salzburg.

The EU has warmed up to more compromise in order to avoid a no-deal Brexit. Even Michel Barnier, the top EU negotiator and the EU’s version of Jeremy Corbyn, sounded more open to strike a deal over the next six to eight weeks. A conference is scheduled for mid-November where a potential Brexit deal between the EU and the UK could be signed. Then there is the issue of the Irish border which many claim is the last obstacle to a Brexit deal.

Maybe a few week’s away from divorce negotiations is what was needed in order for UK Prime Minister May to understand that the UK may be in a much better position than consensus tries to persuade everyone. With her job on the line, May appears to have gotten back on the track to fulfil her duties as a PM and deliver on the vote to leave the EU. Prior to the summer recess, May often pushed a soft Brexit which many Brexiteers pointed out would leave the UK in a weak position.

Brexit is inching closer, day-by-day, and the civil servants in charge of negotiation a deal are more or less on vacation for a few weeks. Maybe a breather is what they need, maybe they are not concerned about it given the UK’s team is led by a 'Remainer' or maybe it is a brilliant strategy to force the EU to come back from its break and actually negotiate.

After former Brexit Secretary David Davis resigned amid protest over May’s soft Brexit proposal which will keep the UK aligned to EU rules forever in the areas of goods and agriculture, new Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab met his counterpart Michel Barnier in Brussels to negotiate May’s new proposal. A different name, but the same outcome. Barnier rejected a key part of British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit trade proposal.

Just a little over a week ago on the weekend of Friday, July 6th, UK Prime Minister Theresa May gathered her cabinet at her ‘Chequers’ country residence in order to put her foot down on a soft version of Brexit. Many claimed it was a make or break moment and as Monday approached it was hailed as a success and that her Conservative Tories rallied behind her in order to deliver a united front on her version of Brexit to her EU counterparts.

British Prime Minister Theresa May has survived several leadership challenges over the past year, but so far was always able to avoid a critical issue. Many have compared the post-crisis announcements as muddy waters as it was ultimately unclear what was agreed on between Brexit hardliners and Tory rebels. Each side always claimed victory without any real progress made. The European Union has repeatedly claimed that negotiations can’t advance until clarity on the post-Brexit trade deal exists.

British Prime Minister Theresa May was able to put out yet another fire and survive to fight another day. The Tory rebellion has been put to rest, at least for now. Rebels pushed for an amendment to the current Brexit legislation in order for Parliament to have a meaningful vote on the final deal May will bring back from Brussels. Pro-Brexit lawmakers as well as May rejected such an amendment as it weakens their negotiating power with Brussels.

It is easy to forget about Brexit this month, with plenty of other events grabbing the headlines. Many are also getting tired of the twists and turns Brexit has taken and welcome the distractions away from Brexit headline after Brexit headline. As the Trump-Kim Summit ended with the signature of both leaders on a ‘comprehensive document’ and undisclosed details, forex traders didn’t show any reaction as price action remained calm.

As the Brexit deadline approaches and the disagreements widen, some voices in UK politics are rumored to secretly prepare for yet another snap election. In the open, politicians dismiss the idea for an election but it is clear that they grow wary and nervous that one could creep up. Prime Minister Theresa May is losing support and many believe that she won’t be able to deliver the type of Brexit that would be acceptable to both sides of the aisle.