China may be changing its strategy in the trade war it was dragged into by the US. While speculations run high if Trump’s strategy worked and harmed the Chinese economy to the point they felt forced to change direction or if this is a tactical maneuver by China remains to be seen. US President Donald Trump is likely to tweet more messages of a victorious outcome. So far China retaliated to each tariff increase the Trump administration announced.

The trade war US President Trump started and is now escalating, has turned into much more than trade. Some analysts point out that this is a technology war on top of that while others draw comparisons to a new cold war between two superpowers. Trump has made every effort to escalate the trade war, especially when news reports after bilateral meetings sounded a more optimistic. The reason may be that took on the mantle of a war time president as the election cycle is coming closer to a full start. Along the way, his advisors and Trump have severely miscalculated the Chinese response.

US President Trump decided last week to escalate the trade he started with China by announcing a 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports starting September 1st 2019. This would essentially tariff all Chinese imports to the US and sources claim that he acted against the recommendation of his top advisors. After Trump announced his decision, market entered a risk-off mood as traders awaited the Chinese response. It was delivered yesterday and send US equity markets into their worst sell-off of 2019 with the Dow Jones at one point almost off by 1,000 points.

Investors have not had a chance to fully digest what the announced tariff truce between the US and China means, but US President Trump has already moved towards his next target. While the trade dispute between the US and the EU started before Trump took office, it is expected that ties between both sides will deteriorate. At the center of the dispute are US based Boeing and EU based Airbus. The US has accused the EU of heavy subsidies for Airbus which give the aerospace and defence giant an unfair advantage.

This year’s G20 Summit will be hosted by Japanese Prime Minister Abe in Osaka Japan. It will start on Friday, June 28th 2019 at 0915 local time with a pre-summit press conference and end on Saturday, June 29th 2019 at 1345 local time with a closing session. While several key global issues are on the agenda, forex traders will likely focus on bilateral sidelines meeting which will be held throughout the summit.

The trade war between the US and China is heating up with the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of China, stating “We advise the U.S. side not to underestimate the Chinese side’s ability to safeguard its development rights and interests. Don’t say we didn’t warn you! United States, don’t underestimate China’s ability to strike back.” At the same time, trade talks between the US and EU collapsed which added another layer of issues for the slowing global economy and distress for the US economy specifically.

Just as traders and investors once again were motivated to hope that the trade war between the US and China will be resolved sooner rather then later, US President Trump steers the process in a different direction. After warning China against retaliating against his tariffs, which China did Monday morning before equity markets opened for trade in Asia, Trump increased tensions by signing an order which will restrict Huawei and ZTE from selling their 5G equipment to US carriers.

Just as the majority of economists, analysts, investors and traders got comfortable with the progress in trade talks between the US and China in order to resolve the issue, US President Trump reminded everyone that nothing is certain. He took to Twitter on Sunday and fired off two tweets which caught many by surprise. Mass media has lulled everyone into the misguided believe that a trade deal is imminent. Trump has vowed to increase tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese Goods if no trade deal has been reached and the original deadline was March 1st 2019.

The global economy has cooled in the first-quarter of 2019 and there are plenty of factors which keep downside pressure on growth. Some analysts are now seeing economic green shoots as spring is blossoming. The biggest focus has been progress in trade talks between the US and China in order to end their trade war. The Eurozone economy has suffered significantly so far in 2019 which kept the Euro in refined to tightening trading ranges. Will the economic green shoots materialize or falter as summer approaches?

In a sign that the US-China trade talks may be progressing to the point that an agreement can be announced which will please both sides, US President Trump is wasting no time. While many analysts have pointed to the EU auto sector, and Germany specifically, as the next target for Trump’s trade war, he may have just opened an entire new front. Germany is the key driver behind the EU’s export machinery and the auto sector a crucial component of it. It has been therefore expected that Trump will apply pressure on this sector in order to get the desired trade concessions.

According to the US as well as China, there has been plenty of progress made in the trade talks aimed at ending the trade war initiated by the US. Several reports suggested that both leaders may meet this month in order to officially end the trade war, but at least three officials with knowledge of talks have now come forward and stated that there won’t be any such meeting in March. President Trump and Xi may meet at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago golf resort, if they meet at all.

Happy New Year! As traders will take a break from trading today due to the markets being closed, many will start to prepare their portfolios for the 2019 trading year which will kick off tomorrow. The following four themes are very likely to have an impact on price action across asset classes and every forex traders need to remain informed about them. One key area of focus will be the US-China trade war. Ripple effects have been felt around the global economy already and are likely to continue until it will be resolved.

As this past weekend’s G-20 summit concluded in Argentina, market participants were largely focused on the dinner between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi. The sideline show stole the spotlight which meant that something would be announced in an attempt to please the markets and shows that positive progress has been made in the trade war the US started with China. As expected Trump hailed progress and his negotiating tactics while US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated that 142 items have been discussed between both leaders.

While some analysts remain hopeful that a sideline meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi at the G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires will yield a truce in the trade war, it appears rather unlikely. The Wall Street Journal published an interview with Trump on Monday where he stated that he is very likely to move ahead with an increase in China tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods from the current 10% to 25%. This would mean that $250 billion worth of Chinese goods will be taxed by 25%.

US President Donald Trump loves to tweet, often at odd hours and to the surprise of his own cabinet. While the world has gotten used to it by now, and despite the Republicans losing the House of Representatives to the Democrats two week ago, the trade war with China shows no signs of easing. On the contrary it only intensifies. The US President doesn’t need Congress for trade policies which means that the Democrats have little power to stop President Trump from pushing through with his current approach in regards to China.

As the US-China trade war is set to intensify, forex traders should take a closer look at commodity currencies. US President Trump announced that tariffs on the remaining Chinese imports into the country may be announced if no progress is achieved on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires, Argentina between November 30th and December 1st. This would levy tariffs on all Chinese exports to the US, valued over $500 billion per year. This is expected to have a much bigger negative impact on the global economy than many are prepared for.

On September 24th the Trump administration will impose a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. This will be increased to 25% in 2019 and comes on-top of the $50 billion worth of goods which are already under a 25% tariff. President Trump vowed to impose a tariff on the remaining $267 billion worth of Chinese goods, if China decided to retaliate. China vowed to retaliate as it has when the Trump administration announced the initial tariff on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods.

The EURUSD is the most traded currency pair and one thing most can agree on is that the US Dollar is currently overvalued. This is where the agreement ends. According to one analysis conducted by the International Monetary Fund, the US Dollar is trading 11% above its 10-year average (in real effective terms). The OECD concluded that the EURUSD is 15% below purchasing power parity data it calculated which suggests that a rally in this currency pair may be looming.

The US may announce tariffs on as much as $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, on top of the $50 billion already in place, as soon as this week. On Thursday a public commenting period ends, and sources in the White House stated that President Trump would like to move soon after that. China has already vowed to retaliate in kind as the US-China trade war is set to deepen.

While low level Chinese and US delegations are meeting in Washington, round two of the trade war kicked off. The US decided to follow through on its initial $34 billions worth of tariffs with the announced second phase worth $16 billion. This completed the $50 billion worth of tariffs the US announced and further escalates trade tensions. China has retaliated as expected and applied the same 25% tariff on the same amount of imports from the US.

Currency war, also known as competitive devaluations, is a condition in international affairs where countries seek to gain a trade advantage over other countries by causing the exchange rate of their currency to fall in relation to other currencies. Not only does the threat of a trade war impact the day-to-day of the currency markets, it is also related to a currency war where countries devalue their own currency so exports can be sold cheaper overseas in order to jumpstart the economy at home.

The trade war between the US and China is in its early stages and many compare it more than a conflict for the time being. The risks that it will turn into a longer lasting, full blown trade war are increasing daily as rhetoric is on the rise. US President Donald Trump now asked the United States Trade Representatives Office, tasked with identifying another $200 billion worth of Chinese imports for tariffs, to increase the proposed tariffs from 10% to 25%.

After former Brexit Secretary David Davis resigned amid protest over May’s soft Brexit proposal which will keep the UK aligned to EU rules forever in the areas of goods and agriculture, new Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab met his counterpart Michel Barnier in Brussels to negotiate May’s new proposal. A different name, but the same outcome. Barnier rejected a key part of British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit trade proposal.

Many still debate if we have a trade war on our hands already, or if it is more of a trade conflict or just trade fears. Regardless of where one stands in the assessment of the current trade environment, global markets have already started to to show signs of disruptions in the supply chain. Since last week, a currency war may be sniping down currencies before the full impact of a trade war can start counting casualties.

Central bankers and finance ministers of the G-20 will meet in Buenos Aires this weekend, on July 21st through July 22nd. The G-20 controls 85% of the global economy and this marks the first gathering since US President Trump imposed tariffs on the European Union and on China, which sparked retaliation in kind.

The ripple effects of the US-Sino Trade War of 2018 are already being felt across industry groups. The US officially fired the first shot last week on Friday by imposing 25% tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods which are imported to the US, with another $16 billion set to receive the same treatment on July 16th.

Will today be remembered as the Eve of the US-China trade war of 2018? Tomorrow, Friday 6th 2018 the US is supposed to impose a new set of tariffs on Chinese imports to the US. The 25% tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports is in response to what the Trump administration has labeled the theft of American intellectual property. $34 billion will be subject to the tariff starting tomorrow with the remaining $16 billion set to take effect on June 15th.

Up until a few days ago, many were wondering if a trade war between the US and China would be avoided or if it would commence. Now the battle lines have been drawn as the Trump administration targeted $50 billion worth of Chinese imports, primarily non-consumer related items such as machinery, which would be subject to a 25% tariff. US President Trump threatened more tariffs if China was to retaliate.

The 44th G-7 Summit will take place on June 8th through June 9th in Charlevoix, Canada. Some market participants already refer to it as the G-6 + the US, given US President Donald Trump’s protectionate stance and imposed tariffs on its trading allies. The G-7 is comprised of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US. The European Union, the world’s largest trading bloc, is also represented. The G7 represents 46% of global nominal GDP and 32% of global purchasing power parity.

Summer is approaching and as most traders know this usually comes with a severe slowdown in trading activity also known as the ‘summer doldrums’. The reason being that most active players in the financial sector are operating with a skeleton crew as the majority of staff are around the globe enjoying summer. This doesn’t mean that trading will become boring or that there won’t be any opportunities. On the contrary, each development will have a magnified impact on price action due to the lack of volume.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will hold is bi-annual meeting in Washington this week. Today finance ministers as well as central bankers from the G20 will convene which will be followed by Saturday’s meeting which will include all member nations of the IMF. The US as well as China are on a path to gather allies for their trade war, especially within the G20 members.

The trade war between the US and China is not the only headwind facing Chinese economic worries. While the trade war, which is increasing in scope and size, will have a negative economic impact, it is not the biggest issue clouding economic and fiscal stability. As the economy is metamorphosing from an emerging one into a developed one, the same threat other developed countries struggle with is rearing its ugly head: debt.

Yesterday marked the first FOMC meeting chaired by Jerome Powell, the new US Federal Reserve Chief. As market participants and Fed watchers widely anticipated, he kicked of his first FOMC meeting with a 25 basis point interest rate increase to 1.75%. The Fed also confirmed that it wants to hike three times in 2018 while signalling that more interest rate hikes are expected in 2019 as well as 2020.

US President Donald Trump and his administration view cheap steel imports as a threat to national security and he often pointed out to China dumping cheap steel on the global market. While President Trump has in the past changed his opinion on proposals, it appears that his proposed 25% tariff on imported steel is something he wants to force through.