The release on the US labor market, which will be published this Friday, is in the focus of Forex traders. Intrigue adds the resumption of the strengthening of the US currency against the background of not very good fundamental data on the state of the European economy, published recently.
NonFarm Payrolls
Last data: 196K
Consensus forecast: 185K
The US labor market remains the backbone of the US economy, and all signs point to another significant increase in the number of jobs. After the publication of 196K in March, the consensus forecast assumes that in the fourth month of the year 185 thousand new jobs will be added.
Despite the fact that the projected figures are slightly lower than the previous ones, at the moment this is not significant. According to the calculation of the Atlanta Fed job growth, over the next 12 months, the US economy needs only + 111 thousand new jobs per month to maintain the current unemployment rate of 3.8%.
If this forecast is justified, Forex traders should expect an increase in the US dollar in relation to its main competitors.
Average Hourly Earnings
Last data: 0.1%
Consensus forecast: 0.3%
According to recently published data, the growth of the American economy increased in the first quarter. Its main catalysts were the reduction of the trade deficit and the record accumulation of unsold goods in three years. In the first quarter of this year, the country's GDP showed very good growth of 3.2 percent. Gross domestic product growth has also been helped by increased public investment. We believe that due to the above-mentioned parameters, the Average Hourly Earnings numbers will be about 0.3%.
If this forecast is justified, then, together with good numbers on NFP, this will further strengthen the US currency.
Unemployment Rate
Last data: 3.8%
Consensus forecast: 3.8%
The US unemployment rate remains at a decently low level of 3.8%. We believe that it will at least remain at the same level, taking into account the outlined data on the growth of the American economy. In addition, this indicator may be supported by an increase in US exports.
If this forecast is justified, then we should expect the growth of the US currency. USD rally can also take place if the indicator exceeds analysts' expectations or shows good numbers along with NFP and Average Hourly Earnings data.
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