Forex traders will pay very close attention to the EU summit over the next two days as new hurdles emerged in regards to a Brexit deal. The British Pound surged to five-month highs amid optimism that a deal will be reached, but time is running out and divisions remain. After the UK labor market showed job losses earlier this week, forex traders will get retail sales data this morning. How will this influence the GBPUSD? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and grow your balance trade-by-trade.
US industrial and manufacturing data will be in focus today as traders try to assess how weak the US economy is. Since the start of the fourth-quarter, data has largely disappointed with yesterday’s dismal retail sales report raising fresh red flags. How will US economic data impact the GBPUSD? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at the upside potential as well as downside risk in this currency pair.
Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for British Pound trades:
- UK Retail Sales: UK Retail Sales for September are predicted to decrease by 0.1% monthly and to increase by 2.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK Retail Sales for August which decreased by 0.3% monthly and which increased by 2.2% annualized. UK Retail Sales Including Auto and Fuel for September are predicted to decrease by 0.2% monthly and to increase by 3.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK Retail Sales Including Auto and Fuel for August which decreased by 0.2% monthly and which increased by 2.7% annualized.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US Housing Starts and Building Permits: US Housing Starts for September are predicted to decrease by 3.2% monthly to 1,320K starts and Building Permits are predicted to decrease by 5.8% monthly to 1,342K permits. Forex traders can compare this to US Housing Starts for August which increased by 12.3% monthly to 1,364K starts and to Building Permits which increased by 7.7% monthly to 1,419K permits.
- US Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of October 12th are predicted at 215K and US Continuing Claims for the week of October 5th are predicted at 1,670K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of October 5th which were reported at 210K and to US Continuing Claims for the week of September 28th which were reported at 1,684K.
- US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook for October is predicted at 7.1. Forex traders can compare this to the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook for September which was reported at 12.0.
- US Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production: US Industrial Production for September is predicted to decrease by 0.2% monthly and Manufacturing Production is predicted to decrease by 0.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Industrial Production for August which increased by 0.6% monthly and to Manufacturing Production which increased by 0.5% monthly. Capacity Utilization for September is predicted at 77.7%. Forex traders can compare this to Capacity Utilization for August which was reported at 77.9%.
Should price action for the GBPUSD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.2750 to 1.2870 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.2785
- Take Profit Zone: 1.3100 – 1.3175
- Stop Loss Level: 1.2700
Should price action for the GBPUSD breakdown below 1.2750 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.2700
- Take Profit Zone: 1.2470 – 1.2580
- Stop Loss Level: 1.2800
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