GBPAUD Fundamental Analysis – February 11th 2020

Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for British Pound trades:

• UK GDP: The UK Preliminary GDP for December is predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the UK GDP for November, which decreased by 0.3% monthly. The UK Preliminary GDP for the fourth quarter is predicted flat at 0.0% quarterly and to increase by 0.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the third-quarter GDP, which increased by 0.4% quarterly and by 1.1% annualized. Private Consumption for the fourth quarter is predicted to increase by 0.1% quarterly, Government Spending is predicted to increase by 0.5% quarterly and Gross Fixed Capital Formation is predicted to decrease by 0.3% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to third-quarter Private Consumption, which increased by 0.3% quarterly, to Government Spending, which decreased by 0.6% quarterly, and to Gross Fixed Capital Formation, which increased by 0.2% quarterly. UK Exports for the fourth quarter are predicted to increase by 1.7% quarterly and UK Imports are predicted flat at 0.0% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to third-quarter UK Exports, which increased by 7.9% quarterly and to UK Imports, which decreased by 0.3% quarterly. UK Total Business Investment for the fourth quarter is predicted to decrease by 0.6% quarterly and by 1.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK Total Business Investment for the third quarter, which was reported flat at 0.0% quarterly, and which increased by 0.5% annualized.
• UK Construction Output Seasonally Adjusted: UK Construction Output Seasonally Adjusted for December is predicted to decrease by 0.4% monthly, and to increase by 3.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK Construction Output Seasonally Adjusted for November, which increased by 1.9% monthly and 2.0% annualized.
• UK Trade Balance: The UK Visible Trade Balance for December is predicted at -£10.000B. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Visible Trade Balance for November, which was reported at -£5.256B. The UK Trade Balance Non EU for December is predicted at -£2.000B. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Trade Balance Non EU for November, which was reported at £1.734B. The UK Total Trade Balance for December is predicted at -£350B. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Total Trade Balance for November, which was reported at £4.031B.
• UK Industrial Production and UK Manufacturing Production: UK Industrial Production for December is predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly, and to decrease by 0.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK Industrial Production for November, which decreased by 1.2% monthly and 1.6% annualized. UK Manufacturing Production for December is predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly, and to decrease by 0.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK Manufacturing Production for November, which decreased by 1.7% monthly, and which decreased by 2.0% annualized.
• UK Index of Services: The UK Index of Services for December is predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly, and flat at 0.0% for the three-month-over-three-month period ending in December. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Index of Services for November, which decreased by 0.3% monthly, and which increased by 0.1% for the three-month-over-three-month period ending in November.

Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Australian Dollar trades:

• Australian ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: The Australian ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index for the week of February 9th was reported at 107.8. Forex traders can compare this to the Australian ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index for the week of February 2nd, which was reported at 108.5.
• Australian Home Loans and Investment Lending: Australian Home Loans for December increased by 4.4% monthly. Economists predicted an increase of 1.6% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Australian Home Loans for November, which increased by 1.9% monthly. Australian Investment Lending for December increased by 2.8% monthly and the Owner-Occupier Loan Value increased by 5.1% monthly. Economists predicted an increase of 1.6% and 1.6%. Forex traders can compare this to Australian Investment Lending for November, which increased by 2.5% monthly and to Owner-Occupier Loan Value, which increased by 1.6% monthly.
• Australian NAB Business Conditions and Australian NAB Business Confidence: Australian NAB Business Conditions for December were reported at 3 and Australian NAB Business Confidence at -1. Forex traders can compare this to NAB Business Conditions for November, which were reported at 3 and to Australian NAB Business Confidence, which was reported at -2.

Should price action for the GBPAUD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.9165 to 1.9255 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:

• Timeframe: D1
• Recommendation: Long Position
• Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.9225
• Take Profit Zone: 1.9720 – 1.9755
• Stop Loss Level: 1.9100

Should price action for the GBPAUD breakdown below 1.9165 the following trade set-up is recommended:

• Timeframe: D1
• Recommendation: Short Position
• Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.9100
• Take Profit Zone: 1.8850 – 1.9000
• Stop Loss Level: 1.9165

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