Inflation data out of Italy and the Eurozone is expected to remain tame which may further encourage the ECB to stimulate the economy. Despite the ongoing global slowdown, the Eurozone trade surplus is anticipated to show a solid print. The EURUSD has steadily advanced from oversold conditions, how will today’s inflation data impact price action? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and grow your balance trade-by-trade.
Advanced retail sales out of the US will be in focus today as traders want to see if the US consumer was able to continue to support the ailing economy. Despite the economic slowdown, the US consumer remained resilient, borrowed more and spend. Economists expect a minor up-tick in activity. How will this impact the EURUSD? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at the upside potential as well as downside risk in this currency pair.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- Italian Industrial New Orders and Industrial New Sales: Italian Industrial New Orders for August are predicted to increase by 1.9% monthly and to decrease by 2.6% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Italian Industrial New Orders for July which decreased by 2.9% monthly and by 1.0% annualized. Italian Industrial New Sales for August are predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly and to decrease by 1.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Italian Industrial New Orders for July which decreased by 0.5% monthly and by 0.6% annualized.
- Italian CPI: The Preliminary Italian CPI for September is predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly and by 0.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Italian CPI for August which decreased by 0.5% monthly and which increased by 0.4% annualized. The Preliminary Italian Harmonized CPI for September is predicted to increase by 1.5% monthly and by 0.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Italian Harmonized CPI for August which was reported flat at 0.0% monthly and which increased by 0.5% annualized.
- Eurozone CPI and Eurozone Core CPI: The Eurozone CPI for September is predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly and by 0.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone CPI for August which increased by 0.1% monthly and by 1.0% annualized. The Eurozone Core CPI for September is predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly and by 1.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Core CPI for August which increased by 0.4% monthly and by 1.0% annualized.
- Eurozone Trade Balance: The Eurozone Trade Balance for August is predicted at €17.5B. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Trade Balance for July which was reported at €24.8B.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US Advanced Retail Sales: US Advanced Retail Sales for September are predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly and Retail Sales Less Autos are predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Advanced Retail Sales for August which increased by 0.4% monthly and to Retail Sales Less Autos which were reported flat at 0.0% monthly. Retail Sales Less Autos and Gas for September are predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly and Retail Sales Control Group are predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Retail Sales Less Autos and Gas for August which increased by 0.1% monthly and to Retail Sales Control Group which increased by 0.3% monthly.
- US Business Inventories: US Business Inventories for August are predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Business Inventories for July which increased by 0.4% monthly.
- US NAHB Housing Market Index: The US NAHB Housing Market Index for October is predicted at 68. Forex traders can compare this to the US NAHB Housing Market Index for September which was reported at 68.
Should price action for the EURUSD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.0990 to 1.1060 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.1035
- Take Profit Zone: 1.1185 – 1.1245
- Stop Loss Level: 1.0950
Should price action for the EURUSD breakdown below 1.0990 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.0950
- Take Profit Zone: 1.0840 – 1.0885
- Stop Loss Level: 1.1035
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