The Australian labor market showed stagnation on the headline figure, but it created full-time jobs while shedding part-time positions. The unemployment rate held steady. In a positive sign for the economy, second-quarter business confidence recovered. This morning’s data kept the AUDUSD hovering at resistance levels, will bulls get sufficient data out of the US in order extend the current advance? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and join our fast growing community of profitable forex traders!
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Australian Dollar trades:
- Australian Employment Report: The Australian Employment Change for June was reported at 0.5K. Economists predicted a figure of 9.0K. Forex traders can compare this to the Australian Employment Change for May which was reported at 45.3K. The Unemployment Rate for June was reported at 5.2%. Economists predicted a reading of 5.2%. Forex traders can compare this to the Unemployment Rate for May which was reported at 5.2%. 21.1K Full-Time Positions were created in June and 20.6K Part-Time Positions were lost. Forex traders can compare this to the creation of 3.1K Full-Time Positions and 42.2K Part-Time Positions which were reported in May. The Labor Force Participation Rate for June was reported at 66.0%. Economists predicted a reading of 65.9%. Forex traders can compare this to the Labor Force Participation Rate for May which was reported at 66.0%.
- Australian NAB Business Confidence: Australian NAB Business Confidence for the second-quarter was reported at 6. Forex traders can compare this to Australian NAB Business Confidence for the first-quarter which was reported at -1.
- RBA FX Transactions: RBA FX Transactions for June were reported at A$1,478M. Forex traders can compare this to RBA FX Transactions for May which were reported at A$1,384M. RBA FX Government Transactions for June were reported at -A$1,546M and RBA FX Other Transactions were reported at A$3,845M. Forex traders can compare this to RBA FX Government Transactions for May which were reported at -A$1,526 and to RBA FX Other Transactions which were reported at A$1,831M.
Following yesterday’s US Fed Beige Book, forex traders will get speeches from FOMC members Bostic and Williams. Last week markets priced in a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed this month, but this week doubts started to appear. Today’s leading index as well as a regional business outlook are expected to move the US Dollar, but will it help the AUDUSD launch a breakout? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at the upside potential and evaluate the downside risk in this currency pair.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook for July is predicted at 5.0. Forex traders can compare this to the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook for June which was reported at 0.3.
- US Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of July 13th are predicted at 216K and US Continuing Claims for the week of July 6th are predicted at 1,700K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of July 6th which were reported at 209K and to US Continuing Claims for the week of June 29th which were reported at 1,723K.
- US Leading Index: The US Leading Index for June are predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the US Leading Index for May which was reported flat at 0.0% monthly.
Should price action for the AUDUSD remain inside the or breakout above the 0.7000 to 0.7050 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.7030
- Take Profit Zone: 0.7150 – 0.7210
- Stop Loss Level: 0.7000
Should price action for the AUDUSD breakdown below 0.7000 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.6975
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6830 – 0.6865
- Stop Loss Level: 0.7000
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