What to expect from NFP release?

The first Friday of the month will again be marked by a fresh package of American fundamental data on the labor market.

NonFarm Payrolls

Last data: 201K

Consensus forecast: 185K

We expect that in September the volume of employment in the US non-farm sector will show an increase of 185 thousand new jobs. This is less than the previous figure, but, nevertheless, these figures also indicate a very good “health” of the American economy.

Despite protests from the liberal public, the duties imposed by President Trump on a number of countries contribute to the creation of a fairly large number of new jobs within the country. Most likely, this trend will continue in the coming months.

The long-term strengthening of the US currency is likely to continue, and if this forecast is justified, this will contribute to the short-term growth of the US currency in the Forex market.

Average Hourly Earnings

Last data: 0.4%

Consensus forecast: 0.3%

Investors are also closely monitoring such an important indicator as Average Hourly Earnings. Despite the fact that according to the consensus forecast, a slight decrease in this indicator is expected - up to 0.3%, analysts are inclined to consider this a temporary phenomenon. Indirectly, the indicator was influenced by Hurricane Florence, which hit the states of North and South Carolina.

If the forecast is justified, then this probably will not have a negative impact on the US currency.

Unemployment Rate

Last data: 3.9%

Consensus forecast: 3.8%

Another key indicator in the new release could be the Unemployment Rate. According to the forecast, we expect it to decline to 3.8%, aided by strong data on the stability of job growth in general, and on the fundamental data of the American economy, demonstrating a steady positive development.

If this forecast is justified, then we can expect a rally in all pairs with the US dollar, especially in combination with the NFP forecast for the number of new jobs.