What to expect from NFP release?

Tomorrow, on the first Friday of the first month of the new year, the attention of traders will be directed to a fresh package of US fundamental data on the labor market.

NonFarm Payrolls

Last data: 155K

Consensus forecast: 177K

We expect that the data for December, in the context of general pessimism in the market, in terms of employment in the non-agricultural sector of the United States will show about 177 thousand new jobs. Despite the fact that the stock market is more or less recovering, the level of employment will most likely not be able to reach the desired 200 thousand. The statistics of growth in some spheres of the American economy also added the negative. Its influence, albeit indirect, also had a government crisis.

If this forecast is justified, then we can expect a moderate growth of the US currency.

Average Hourly Earnings

Last data: 0.2%

Consensus forecast: 0.3%

Average Hourly Earnings, according to our forecast, will slightly increase - up to 0.3% on a monthly basis. At the moment it is difficult to determine whether these figures will serve as an argument in favor of the existing positive trend, or whether they are temporary and having a kind of pre-New Year character.

If the forecast is justified, then it will contribute to the growth of the US dollar, and together with strong NFP numbers can lead to a short-term rally.

Unemployment Rate

Last data: 3.7%

Consensus forecast: 3.7%

The unemployment rate indicator is likely to remain unchanged compared to the previous month. Despite weak statistics from various areas of the US economy, this indicator continues to show very stable and good numbers.

If this forecast is justified, then traders can expect the growth of the US currency. In the case of excellent data on other indicators, it is worth waiting for a short-term rally of the US currency.