Economic data out of New Zealand showed the Business Manufacturing PM continued to contract in September as electronic retail card sales slowed down sharply. Forex traders largely ignored the economic data and chose to focus on developments out of the US-China trade talks which will continue today. President Trump stated the first day was great, but his statements were often contradicted by actual events. What does this mean for the NZDUSD? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
US economic data will include the latest reading on consumer confidence which is expected to move the US Dollar. Despite the ongoing slowdown, the US consumer continued to borrow and spend which supported the economy. Is this trend coming to an end? The Import and Export Price Index is expected to reflect the overall slowdown in the US economy. How will this impact the NZDUSD? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at the downside potential as well as the upside risk in this currency pair.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for New Zealand Dollar trades:
- New Zealand Business Manufacturing PMI: The New Zealand Business Manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 48.4. Forex traders can compare this to the New Zealand Business Manufacturing PMI for August which was reported at 48.4.
- New Zealand Card Spending: New Zealand Retail Card Spending for September increased by 0.4% monthly and New Zealand Card Spending increased by 0.6% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to New Zealand Retail Card Spending for August which increased by 1.1% monthly and to New Zealand Card Spending which increased by 1.3% monthly.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US Import and Export Price Index: The US Import Price Index for September is predicted to decrease by 0.1% monthly and by 2.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US Import Price Index for August which decreased by 0.5% monthly and by 2.0% annualized. The US Import Price Index excluding Petroleum for September is predicted to decrease by 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the US Import Price Index excluding Petroleum for August which was reported flat at 0.0% monthly. The US Export Price Index for September is predicted to decrease by 0.2% monthly and by 1.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US Export Price Index for August which decreased by 0.6% monthly and which decreased by 1.4% annualized.
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment for October is predicted at 92.0. Forex traders can compare this to US Michigan Consumer Confidence for September which was reported at 93.2. Preliminary Current Conditions for October are expected at 107.5 and Preliminary Expectations are predicted at 81.7. Forex traders can compare this to Current Conditions for September which were reported at 108.5 and to Expectations which were reported at 83.4.
Should price action for the NZDUSD remain inside the or breakout above the 0.6285 to 0.6340 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.6320
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6510 – 0.6585
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6250
Should price action for the NZDUSD breakdown below 0.6285 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.6235
- Take Profit Zone: 0.5995 – 0.6125
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6285
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