The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, coming out this Friday 07/02/2020, is in the focus of Forex traders, as it will complement the overall picture of U.S. inflation and economic development, then allow the Federal Reserve to assess the need for further interest rate cuts and in what direction to develop the economy.
Last data: 145K
Consensus Forecast: 160K
The U.S. labor market remains the backbone of the U.S. economy, with fewer jobs created last month than expected, as reported by the Department of Labor last Friday. In late 2019, the labor market slowed down. Non-farm employment increased by 145k in December compared to expectations of growth of 164k. Although the forecasted figures are slightly lower than the previous ones, which is not significant at the moment. According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve's job growth estimates, the U.S. economy needs only + 111 thousand new jobs per month over the next 12 months to maintain its current unemployment rate at 3.8%.
In case this forecast comes true, Forex traders should expect the growth of the American dollar against its main competitors.
Last data: 0.1%
Consensus forecast: 0.3%
This indicator shows the change in the average hourly wage level for major industries, except agriculture.
Past data: 3.5%
Consensus forecast: 3.5%
The US unemployment rate remains at a historic low of 3.5%. Let's start with the economic outlook: China and the US signed a trade agreement shortly after the December Fed meeting and since then we have seen both improvements and worsening of the US statistics. According to the table below, retail sales recovered at the end of the year and activity in the service sector accelerated, but consumer confidence, employment and wage growth, inflation, manufacturing activity, and trade balance worsened, these facts may negatively affect the changes in the number of jobs.
Trade wars, conflicting views of FOMC and President Donald Trump, who believes that interest rates should be lowered in order to further develop private companies and strengthen the country's economy, China's coronavirus, trade truce, and other factors make this report particularly liquid and attractive to investors at various levels.
During the previous release of the data, the movement on the EUR/USD currency pair at the moment made 16 points:
.But it also caused a total short-term movement of 87 points:
The more interesting course of the event took place on the asset, which closely correlates with the currency pair EUR/USD - gold, at the moment of publication prices for the asset rose by 98 points.
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