Gold has corrected below the psychological $1,500 level, but found support as geopolitical tension remain high and the global economy accelerates its slowdown. Chinese GDP data came in below expectations, but September saw a pick-up in industrial production as well as retail sales. Japan showed that inflation remains absent in a country no strange to deflationary pressures. How will gold trade heading into the weekend? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at the upside potential as well as downside risk in this precious metal.
Turkey agreed to a five-day cease fire as Kurdish forces retreat. The Turkish military operation into Syria has supported the price of gold and is anticipated to continue to do so. Lack of clarity and details about the partial US-China trade deal as well as this Saturday’s UK Parliament vote on the announced new Brexit deal between the EU and the UK also adds to demand for this precious metal. How will today’s developments impact Gold? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and grow your balance trade-by-trade.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Gold trades:
- Japanese National CPI: The Japanese National CPI for September increased by 0.2% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Japanese National CPI for August which increased by 0.3% annualized. The Japanese National Core CPI for September increased by 0.5% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Japanese National Core CPI for August which increased by 0.6% annualized. The Japanese National CPI Excluding Fresh Food for September increased by 0.3% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Japanese National CPI Excluding Fresh Food for August which increased by 0.5% annualized.
- Japanese Buying Foreign Bonds and Japanese Buying Foreign Stocks/Foreign Buying Japanese Bonds and Foreigners Buying Japanese Stocks: Japanese Buying Foreign Bonds for the period ending October 11th was reported at ¥1,062.2B and Japanese Buying Foreign Stocks was reported at ¥48.5B. Forex traders can compare this to Japanese Buying Foreign Bonds for the period ending October 4th which was reported at -¥425.7B and to Japanese Buying Foreign Stocks which was reported at ¥233.3B. Foreign Buying Japanese Bonds for the period ending October 11th was reported at ¥102.8B and Foreigners Buying Japanese Stocks was reported at ¥508.1B. Forex traders can compare this to Foreign Buying Japanese Bonds for the period ending October 4th which was reported at ¥913.9B and to Foreigners Buying Japanese Stocks which was reported at ¥1,072.5B.
- Chinese Retail Sales: Chinese Retail Sales for September increased by 7.8% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 7.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Chinese Retail Sales for August which increased by 7.5% annualized.
- Chinese Industrial Production: Chinese Industrial Production for September increased by 5.8% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 4.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Chinese Industrial Production for August which increased by 4.4% annualized.
- Chinese Fixed Assets ex Rural: Chinese Fixed Assets ex Rural for September increased by 5.4% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 5.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Chinese Fixed Assets ex Rural for August which increased by 5.5% annualized.
- Chinese Property Investment: Chinese Property Investment for September increased by 10.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Chinese Property Investment for August which increased by 10.5% annualized.
- Chinese Surveyed Jobless Rate: The Chinese Surveyed Jobless Rate for September was reported at 5.2%. Forex traders can compare this to the Chinese Surveyed Jobless Rate for August which was reported at 5.2%.
- Chinese GDP: The Chinese GDP for the third-quarter increased by 1.5% quarterly and by 6.0% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 1.5% quarterly and of 6.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Chinese GDP for the second-quarter which increased by 1.6% quarterly and by 6.2% annualized.
- Eurozone Current Account: The Eurozone Current Account (s.a.) for August was reported at €26.6B and the Eurozone Current Account (n.s.a) was reported at €25.7B. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Current Account (s.a.) for July which was reported at €21.6B and to the Eurozone Current Account (n.s.a.) which was reported at €31.4B.
- Hong Kong Unemployment Rate: The Hong Kong Unemployment Rate for September was reported at 2.9%. Economists predicted a figure of 2.9%. Forex traders can compare this to the Hong Kong Unemployment Rate for August which was reported at 2.9%.
- US Leading Index: The US Leading Index for September is predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the US Leading Index for August which was reported flat at 0.0% monthly.
Should price action for Gold remain inside the or breakout above the 1,473.80 to 1,502.90 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1,487.75
- Take Profit Zone: 1,535.40 – 1,556.70
- Stop Loss Level: 1,472.00
Should price action for Gold breakdown below 1,473.80 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1,462.00
- Take Profit Zone: 1,430.00 – 1,437.50
- Stop Loss Level: 1,472.00
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