UK PM Johnson’s push for a December 12th 2019 election was defeated in Parliament and forex traders will now have to wait what will follow after the EU granted a Brexit extension until January 31st 2020. The GBPUSD retreated from its multi-month high as uncertainty surrounding Brexit rose. How will today’s economic data impact price action in this currency pair? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and grow your balance trade-by-trade.
Yesterday’s economic data out of the US came in a lot weaker than expected and once again pointed towards economic contraction. Traders brushed aside recession fears and chose to push equity markets to fresh all-time highs and focus on the Fed which is expected to cut interest rates again later this week. Comments by US President Trump that he is likely to sign some parts of the US-China trade truce further boosted confidence. How will the GBPUSD react to today’s economic data out of the US? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at the upside potential as well as downside risk in this currency pair.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for British Pound trades:
- UK Nationwide House Prices: UK Nationwide House Prices for September are predicted flat at 0.0% monthly and to increase by 0.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK Nationwide House Prices for August which decreased by 0.2% monthly and which increased by 0.2% annualized.
- UK Mortgage Approvals: UK Mortgage Approvals for September are predicted at 65.0K. Forex traders can compare this to UK Mortgage Approvals for August which were reported at 65.5K.
- UK Consumer Credit and Net Lending Securities on Dwellings: UK Net Consumer Credit for September is predicted at £0.9B and Net Lending Securities on Dwellings is predicted at £3.8B. Forex traders can compare this to UK Net Consumer Credit for August which was reported at £0.9B and to Net Lending Securities on Dwellings which was reported at £3.9B.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20: The US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 for August is predicted to decrease by 0.10% monthly and to increase by 2.04% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 for July which increased by 0.02% monthly and by 2.00% annualized.
- US Consumer Confidence: US Consumer Confidence for October is predicted at 127.5. Forex traders can compare this to US Consumer Confidence for September which was reported at 125.1.
- US Pending Home Sales: US Pending Home Sales for September are predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly and by 1.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to US Pending Home Sales for August which increased by 1.6% monthly and by 1.1% annualized.
Should price action for the GBPUSD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.2810 to 1.2920 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.2855
- Take Profit Zone: 1.3010 – 1.3130
- Stop Loss Level: 1.2750
Should price action for the GBPUSD breakdown below 1.2810 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.2750
- Take Profit Zone: 1.2515 – 1.2600
- Stop Loss Level: 1.2810
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