Today’s focus for British Pound trades will be the release of PMI data as well as speeches given by Bank of England MPC members Cunliffe in Lisbon and Broadbent in London. Many forex traders will await if Boris Johnson, currently in the lead to become the next UK Prime Minister, will be able to take it all the way and secure the top job in UK politics. The GBPUSD has been sliding to the upper band of its horizontal support area, will bulls launch a short-covering rally? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis for free and get the most profitable fundamental analysis trading set-ups delivered fresh from the desks of our expert analysts into your inbox!
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for British Pound trades:
- UK BRC Shop Price Index: The UK BRC Shop Price Index for June decreased by 0.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the UK BRC Shop Price Index May which increased by 0.8% annualized.
- UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI and Markit/CIPS Composite PMI: The UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI for June is predicted at 51.0 and the UK Markit/CIPS Composite PMI is predicted at 51.0. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI for May which was reported at 51.0 and to the UK Markit/CIPS Composite PMI which was reported at 50.9.
Forex traders will await the release of June ADP data in order to gauge Friday’s NFP report. The US labor market has shown signs of fundamental weakness and if this trend extend into June, the US Dollar could come under more selling pressure. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is also anticipated to move price action, will the data come in below expectations for a slowdown? Weaker US economic data today could provide the spark to push the GBPUSD off of strong support levels. Forex trading strategies need to ensure that they protect investor’s bottom line and not only focus on the top line.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US ADP Employment Change: The US ADP Employment Change for June is predicted at 140K. Forex traders can compare this to the US ADP Employment Change for May which was reported at 27K.
- US Trade Balance: The US Trade Balance for May is predicted at -$53.4B. Forex traders can compare this to the US Trade Balance for April which was reported at -$50.8B.
- US Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of June 29th are predicted at 220K and US Continuing Claims for the week of June 22nd are predicted at 1,681K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of June 22nd which were reported at 227K and to US Continuing Claims for the week of June 15th which were reported at 1,688K.
- US Markit Services PMI and Markit Composite PMI: The US Final Markit Services PMI for June is predicted at 50.7 and the US Final Markit Composite PMI is predicted at 50.6. Forex traders can compare this to the previous US Markit Services PMI for June which was reported at 50.7 and to the previous US Markit Composite PMI which was reported at 50.6.
- US Factory Orders: US Factory Orders for May are predicted to decrease by 0.5% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Factory Orders for April which increased by 0.8% monthly.
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for June is predicted at 56.0. Forex traders can compare this to the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for May which was reported at 56.9. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index for June is predicted at 60.0. Forex traders can compare this to the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index for May which was reported at 61.2.
Should price action for the GBPUSD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.2555 to 1.2620 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.2575
- Take Profit Zone: 1.2865 – 1.2900
- Stop Loss Level: 1.2480
Should price action for the GBPUSD breakdown below 1.2555 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.2510
- Take Profit Zone: 1.2360 – 1.2400
- Stop Loss Level: 1.2555
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