Forex traders will start the new trading week with a light economic calendar which will likely see an extension of existing trends across currency pairs. Starting off on a positive note, UK property website Rightmove reported a 6.1% annualized increase in UK home sales for August. As Brexit is nearing, UK consumers enjoy a strong labor market with the biggest wage increases in 11 years. The British Pound has started to recover last week from multi-month lows which resulted in a breakout of the GBPJPY above its horizontal support area. Will this breakout turn into a bigger rally with no resistance in its way? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at the upside potential in this currency pair and evaluate the downside risk.
The Japanese trade balance posted a bigger than expected deficit for July as imports as well as exports continued to contract due to the slowing global economy, the US-China trade war as well as Japan’s own trade dispute with South Korea. The Japanese Yen saw an outflow of capital following the depressing economic data. Adding to the selling pressure was the Japan Reuters Tankan Index for August which dropped into negative territory. Are forex traders exiting their long Japanese Yen trades as the Bank of Japan vowed to step in and weaken its currency? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis now, get your GBPJPY trading set-up and earn more pips per trade!
Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for British Pound trades:
- UK Rightmove House Prices: UK Rightmove House Prices for August decreased by 1.0% monthly and increased by 1.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to UK Rightmove House Prices for July which decreased by 0.2% monthly and by 0.2% annualized.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Japanese Yen trades:
- Japan Reuters Tankan Index: The Japan Reuters Tankan Index for August was reported at -4. Forex traders can compare this to the Japan Reuters Tankan Index for July which was reported at 3.
- Japanese Trade Balance: The Japanese Trade Balance for July was reported at -¥249.6B. Economists predicted a figure of -¥194.5B. Forex traders can compare this to the Japanese Trade Balance for June which was reported at ¥589.6B. The Japanese Adjusted Trade Balance for July was reported at -¥126.8B. Economists predicted a figure of -¥150.8B. Forex traders can compare this to the Japanese Adjusted Trade Balance for June which was reported at -¥33.9B. Exports for July decreased by 1.6% annualized and Imports decreased by 1.2% annualized. Economists predicted a decrease of 2.3% and of 2.3%. Forex traders can compare this to Exports for June which decreased by 6.6% annualized and to Imports which decreased by 5.2% annualized.
Should price action for the GBPJPY remain inside the or breakout above the 128.750 to 130.000 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 129.250
- Take Profit Zone: 133.000 – 143.850
- Stop Loss Level: 128.250
Should price action for the GBPJPY breakdown below 128.750 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 128.250
- Take Profit Zone: 125.450 – 126.100
- Stop Loss Level: 128.750
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