With Brexit roughly two weeks away and the EU and the UK apparently still too far apart to reach a deal, analysts will await today’s UK employment data in order to gauge the health of the labor market amid an uncertain Brexit outcome. Wage pressures have been elevated and economists expect this to continue. How will today’s employment data impact price action in the GBPAUD? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at the downside risk as well as the upside potential in this currency pair.
RBA minutes were in focus during the Asian trading session. The Australian central bank highlighted ongoing global economic concerns, but noted that its own economy showed signs of stabilizing in the first half of 2019 with a resilient service sector. The Australian Dollar remained stable after the release. Chinese inflation data showed higher-than-expected CPI data while the PPI continues to print deflationary pictures. How will the GBPAUD be impacted moving forward? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for British Pound trades:
- UK Jobless Claims Change and Claimant Count Rate: The UK Jobless Claims Change for September is predicted at 26.5K and the Claimant Count Rate is predicted at 3.3%. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Jobless Claims Change for August which was reported at 28.2K and to the Claimant Count Rate which was reported at 3.3%.
- UK Employment Change, ILO Unemployment Rate and Average Weekly Earnings: The UK Employment Change for the tri-monthly period ending in August is predicted at 26K and the ILO Unemployment Rate is predicted at 3.8%. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Employment Change for July which was reported at 31K and to the ILO Unemployment Rate which was reported at 3.8%. Average Weekly Earnings for the tri-monthly period ending in August are predicted to increase by 4.0% annualized and Average Weekly Earnings Excluding Bonuses are predicted to increase by 3.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Average Weekly Earnings for July which increased by 4.0% and Average Weekly Earnings Excluding Bonuses which increased by 3.8%.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Australian Dollar trades:
- Australian ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: The Australian ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index for the week of October 13th was reported at 110.9. Forex traders can compare this to the Australian ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index for the week of October 6th which was reported at 112.3.
- RBA Minutes: RBA minutes from the last central bank meeting were released. They highlighted concerns about the ongoing economic slowdown and the RBA expected that inflation and employment will come in below its expectations over a longer time period. Another interest rate cut appears off the table, at least for the next meeting, unless the economy faces an unexpected shock to the downside.
- Chinese PPI and Chinese CPI: The Chinese PPI for September decreased by 1.2% annualized and the Chinese CPI increased by 3.0% annualized. Economists predicted a decrease of 1.2% and an increase of 2.9%. Forex traders can compare this to the Chinese PPI for August which decreased by 0.8% annualized and to the Chinese CPI which increased by 2.8% annualized.
Should price action for the GBPAUD remain inside the or breakdown below the 1.8575 to 1.8715 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.8650
- Take Profit Zone: 1.7935 – 1.8075
- Stop Loss Level: 1.8785
Should price action for the GBPAUD breakout above 1.8715 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.8785
- Take Profit Zone: 1.8890 – 1.9035
- Stop Loss Level: 1.8715
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