After the Asian trading session produced several key PMI reports which disappointed without exception, forex traders will focus on PMI data out of the Eurozone where the risk of further disappointment has increased. The EURUSD has rallied over the past few trading sessions, but will the rally continue if this morning’s data comes in weaker than expected as it did in Australia and Japan? The ECB meeting will also be closely followed, what impact will it have on the EURUSD? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at price action in both directions.
Today’s PMI heavy data day will continue during the US session where forex traders may had time to prepare for weaker than expected data. Durable goods orders will also be in focus where economists already expected a contraction. Housing data, initial jobless claims as well as a regional manufacturing report will further add to the list of items forex traders will sort through. How will this influence price action in the EURUSD? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- Spanish Unemployment Rate: The Spanish Unemployment Rate for the third-quarter is predicted at 13.85%. Forex traders can compare this to the Spanish Unemployment Rate for the second-quarter which was reported at 14.02%.
- French Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and Composite PMI: The Preliminary French Markit Manufacturing PMI for October is predicted at 50.0. Forex traders can compare this to the French Markit Manufacturing PMI for for September which was reported at 50.1. The Preliminary French Markit Services PMI for October is predicted at 51.5. Forex traders can compare this to the French Markit Services PMI for for September which was reported at 51.1. The Preliminary French Markit Composite PMI for October was reported at 50.9. Forex traders can compare this to the French Markit Composite PMI for for September which was reported at 50.8.
- German Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and Composite PMI: The Preliminary German Markit Manufacturing PMI for October is predicted at 42.0. Forex traders can compare this to the German Markit Manufacturing PMI for for September which was reported at 41.7. The Preliminary German Markit Services PMI for October is predicted at 52.0. Forex traders can compare this to the German Markit Services PMI for for September which was reported at 51.4. The Preliminary German Markit Composite PMI for October is predicted at 48.9. Forex traders can compare this to the German Markit Composite PMI for for September which was reported at 48.5.
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and Composite PMI: The Preliminary Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI for October is predicted at 46.0. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI for for September which was reported at 45.7. The Preliminary Eurozone Markit Services PMI for October is predicted at 51.9. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Markit Services PMI for for September which was reported at 51.6. The Preliminary Eurozone Markit Composite PMI for October is predicted at 50.4. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Markit Composite PMI for for September which was reported at 50.1.
- ECB Rate Decision: The ECB is predicted to keep its Interest Rate at 0.00%, its Deposit Facility Rate at -0.50% and its Marginal Lending Facility Rate at 0.25%; this would equal no change in the ECB rate policy from the previous meeting.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders: US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for September are predicted to decrease by 0.7% monthly and Durables Excluding Transportation are predicted to decrease by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Durable Goods Orders for August which increased by 0.2% monthly and to Durables Excluding Transportation which increased by 0.5% monthly. Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for September are predicted flat at 0.0% monthly and Capital Goods Shipments Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft are predicted to decrease by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for August which decreased by 0.4% monthly and to Capital Goods Shipments Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft which increased by 0.3% monthly.
- US Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of October 19th are predicted at 215K and US Continuing Claims for the week of October 12th are predicted at 1,675K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of October 12th which were reported at 214K and to US Continuing Claims for the week of October 5th which were reported at 1,679K.
- US Markit Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and Composite PMI: The Preliminary US Markit Manufacturing PMI for October is predicted at 50.7. Forex traders can compare this to the US Markit Manufacturing PMI for September which was reported at 51.1. The Preliminary US Markit Services PMI for October is predicted at 51.0. Forex traders can compare this to the US Markit Services PMI for September which was reported at 50.9. The Preliminary US Markit Composite PMI for October is predicted at 51.6. Forex traders can compare this to the US Markit Composite PMI for September which was reported at 51.0.
- US New Home Sales: US New Home Sales for September are predicted to decrease by 1.4% monthly to 703K new homes. Forex traders can compare this to US New Home Sales for August which increased by 7.1% monthly to 713K new homes.
- US Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index: The US Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for October is predicted at -4. Forex traders can compare this to the US Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for September which was reported at -2.
Should price action for the EURUSD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.1100 to 1.1155 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.1130
- Take Profit Zone: 1.1280 – 1.1345
- Stop Loss Level: 1.1085
Should price action for the EURUSD breakdown below 1.1100 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.1085
- Take Profit Zone: 1.0940 – 1.0990
- Stop Loss Level: 1.1130
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