February 25th 2020.
The final German GDP for the fourth-quarter confirmed the previous reading, but private consumption was revised lower. Germany is leading depressed Eurozone data, which is expected to continue throughout the first quarter of 2020 and possibly beyond. The EURUSD completed a breakout above its horizontal support area, but where is this currency pair headed to next? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at price action in both directions.
Forex traders will get more US housing data today, which plays a crucial role in consumer confidence and spending. Economists predict an increase, followed by a rise in consumer confidence. A regional manufacturing report will also be released, but the main focus remains on disruptions caused by the coronavirus. Will bulls built on the breakout or can bears force a reversal? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- German GDP: The Final German GDP for the fourth-quarter was reported flat at 0.0% quarterly and increased by 0.3% annualized. Economists predicted a flat reading of 0.0% quarterly and an increase of 0.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous fourth-quarter German GDP report, which was reported flat at 0.0% quarterly, and which increased by 0.3% annualized. German Private Consumption for the fourth-quarter was reported flat at 0.0%. Economists predicted an increase of 0.2%. Forex traders can compare this to third-quarter German Private Consumption, which increased by 0.4%. German Government Spending for the fourth-quarter increased by 0.3%. Economists predicted an increase of 0.3%. Forex traders can compare this to third-quarter German Government Spending, which increased by 1.3%. German Capital Investment for the fourth quarter decreased by 0.2%. Economists predicted a decrease of 0.2%. Forex traders can compare this to third-quarter German Capital Investment, which decreased by 0.1%.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US House Price Index: The US House Price Index for December is predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US House Price Index for November, which increased by 0.2% monthly.
- US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20: The US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 for December is predicted to increase by 0.40% monthly and by 2.85% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 for November, which increased by 0.48% monthly and by 2.55% annualized.
- US Consumer Confidence: US Consumer Confidence for February is predicted at 132.0. Forex traders can compare this to US Consumer Confidence for January, which was reported at 131.6.
- US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for February is predicted at 10. Forex traders can compare this to the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for January, which was reported at 20.
Should price action for the EURUSD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.0800 to 1.0900 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.0850
- Take Profit Zone: 1.1060 – 1.1100
- Stop Loss Level: 1.0775
Should price action for the EURUSD breakdown below 1.0800 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.0775
- Take Profit Zone: 1.0700 – 1.0725
- Stop Loss Level: 1.0800
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