Economists anticipate that the German economy contracted in the second-quarter, on a quarterly as well as annualized basis. What impact will this have on the Eurozone GDP report which will be released today as well? Eurozone industrial production is also expected to post a sharp contraction. The EURUSD rallied off of its support area, can the rally extend as the negative data is already priced in with several economists calling for a German recession in the third-quarter? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and allow our expert analysts to guide you to over 5,000 pips in monthly profits!
US President Trump announced yesterday that he will delay part of his planned tariffs until December 15th 2019 while removing some items from the list. He cited concerns over the US Christmas shopping season as the reason for his change. This will provide a boost to China and shows the US consumer dependence on China. Forex traders will receive the US Import & Export Price Index which is favored to show a contraction across the board. The DOE inventory data is expected to move the oil market. Will the US Dollar face a sell-off as forex traders start to rotate out of the US currency? How will this impact the EURUSD, the most liquid currency pair? This mornings fundamental analysis will cover price action in both directions.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- French Unemployment Rate: The French Unemployment Rate for the second-quarter is predicted at 8.7%. Forex traders can compare this to the French Unemployment Rate for the first-quarter which was reported at 8.7%.
- German GDP: The Preliminary German GDP for the second-quarter is predicted to decrease by 0.1% quarterly and by 0.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the German GDP report for the first-quarter which increased by 0.4% quarterly and by 0.6% annualized.
- Final French CPI: The Final French CPI for July is predicted to decrease by 0.2% monthly and to increase by 1.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous French CPI for July which decreased by 0.2% monthly and which increased by 1.1% annualized. The Final French Harmonized Spanish CPI for July is predicted to decrease by 0.2% monthly and to increase by 1.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous French Harmonized Spanish CPI for July which decreased by 0.2% monthly and which increased by 1.3% annualized.
- Eurozone Industrial Production: Eurozone Industrial Production for June is predicted to decrease by 1.4% monthly and by 1.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Eurozone Industrial Production for May which increased by 0.9% monthly and which decreased by 0.5% annualized.
- Eurozone Employment: Eurozone Employment for the second-quarter is predicted to increase by 0.3% quarterly and by 1.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Eurozone Employment for the first-quarter which increased by 0.3% quarterly and by 1.3% annualized.
- Eurozone GDP: The preliminary Eurozone GDP for the second-quarter is predicted to increase by 0.2% quarterly and by 1.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone GDP for the first-quarter which increased by 0.2% quarterly and by 1.1% annualized.
Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US Import and Export Price Index: The US Import Price Index for July is predicted flat at 0.0% monthly and to decrease by 2.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US Import Price Index for June which decreased by 0.9% monthly and by 2.0% annualized. The US Import Price Index excluding Petroleum for July is predicted to decrease by 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the US Import Price Index excluding Petroleum for June which decreased by 0.4% monthly. The US Export Price Index for July is predicted to decrease by 0.1% monthly and by 1.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US Export Price Index for June which decreased by 0.7% monthly and by 1.6% annualized.
Should price action for the EURUSD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.1125 to 1.1210 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.1170
- Take Profit Zone: 1.1350 – 1.1410
- Stop Loss Level: 1.1100
Should price action for the EURUSD breakdown below 1.1125 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.1085
- Take Profit Zone: 1.0905 – 1.0975
- Stop Loss Level: 1.1125
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