Today’s ZEW data out of Germany and the Eurozone is anticipated to move the Euro which has been under pressure against the British Pound after the Brexit Party announced it will not contest seats won by the Tories during the last election. This made Brexit under PM Johnson’s negotiated deal more likely, but how will the EURGBP be impacted after the release of today’s ZEW data? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at price action in both directions.
After yesterday’s UK economic data, forex traders will get employment data during today’s European trading session. Yesterday’s data showed a mixed economic picture and showed that the ongoing Brexit uncertainty is having an impact, but some bright spots started to simmer through and the UK economy may have seen the worst already. How will the EURGBP trade following the twin report in the state of the labor market? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- German ZEW Survey and Eurozone ZEW Survey: The German ZEW Survey Current Situation Index for November is predicted at -22.0 and the German ZEW Survey Economic Expectations Index at -13.0. Forex traders can compare this to the German ZEW Survey Current Situation Index for October which was reported at -25.3 and to the German ZEW Survey Economic Expectations Index which was reported at -22.8. The Eurozone ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment Index for November is predicted at -11.5. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment Index for October which was reported at -23.5.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for British Pound trades:
- UK Jobless Claims Change and Claimant Count Rate: The UK Jobless Claims Change for October is predicted at 24.2K and the Claimant Count Rate is predicted at 3.3%. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Jobless Claims Change for September which was reported at 21.1K and to the Claimant Count Rate which was reported at 3.3%.
- UK Employment Change, ILO Unemployment Rate and Average Weekly Earnings: The UK Employment Change for the tri-monthly period ending in September is predicted at -102K and the ILO Unemployment Rate is predicted at 3.9%. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Employment Change for August which was reported at -56K and to the ILO Unemployment Rate which was reported at 3.9%. Average Weekly Earnings for the tri-monthly period ending in September are predicted to increase by 3.8% annualized and Average Weekly Earnings Excluding Bonuses are predicted to increase by 3.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Average Weekly Earnings for August which increased by 3.8% and Average Weekly Earnings Excluding Bonuses which increased by 3.8%.
Should price action for the EURGBP remain inside the or breakdown below the 0.8560 to 0.8620 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.8585
- Take Profit Zone: 0.8315– 0.8385
- Stop Loss Level: 0.8655
Should price action for the EURGBP breakout above 0.8620 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.8655
- Take Profit Zone: 0.8750 – 0.8810
- Stop Loss Level: 0.8620
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