German retail sales for October disappointed with a strong contraction and French consumer spending came in lower than expected with a sharp downward revision to the previous month. Employment figures out of Germany and Italy, as well as CPI data out of the Eurozone, are expected next. The EURCAD maintained its bullish trend, but how will it be impacted by more economic data? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at price action in both directions.
Forex traders will finish the trading week with GDP data out of Canada. Economists expected a small monthly increase and a strong quarterly slowdown. The Bank of Canada is watching economic data closely as it opened the door for a potential interest rate cut. Strong data would keep the central bank on the sidelines and support a stronger Canadian Dollar. How will the EURCAD react following the release of Canadian GDP data? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- German Retail Sales: German Retail Sales for October decreased by 1.9% monthly and increased by 0.8% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.2% monthly and 3.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to German Retail Sales for September which were reported flat at 0.0% monthly and which increased by 3.4% annualized.
- French Consumer Spending: French Consumer Spending for October increased by 0.2% monthly. Economists predicted an increase of 0.3%. Forex traders can compare this to French Consumer Spending for September which decreased by 0.3% monthly.
- French CPI: The Preliminary French CPI for November decreased by 0.1% monthly and increased by 1.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the French CPI for October which was reported flat at 0.0% monthly and which increased by 0.8% annualized. The French Harmonized CPI for November increased by 0.1% monthly and by 1.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the French Harmonized CPI for October which decreased by 0.1% monthly and which increased by 0.9% annualized.
- French PPI: The French PPI for October decreased by 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the French PPI for September which increased by 0.1% monthly.
- French GDP: The Final French GDP for the third quarter increased by 0.3% quarterly and by 1.4% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.3% quarterly and 1.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous French GDP for the third quarter which increased by 0.3% quarterly and by 1.3% annualized.
- German Unemployment Change and German Unemployment Rate: The German Unemployment Change for November is predicted at 5K and the German Unemployment Rate at 5.0%. Forex traders can compare this to the German Unemployment Change for October which was reported at 6K and to the German Unemployment Rate which was reported at 5.0%.
- Italian Unemployment Rate: The Italian Unemployment Rate for October is predicted at 9.8%. Forex traders can compare this to the Italian Unemployment Rate for September which was reported at 9.9%.
- Italian CPI: The Preliminary Italian CPI for November is predicted to decrease by 0.1% monthly and to increase by 0.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Italian CPI for October which decreased by 0.1% monthly and which increased by 0.2% annualized. The Preliminary Italian Harmonized CPI for November is predicted to decrease by 0.1% monthly and to increase by 0.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Italian Harmonized CPI for October which increased by 0.2% monthly and by 0.2% annualized.
- Eurozone CPI and Eurozone Core CPI: The Eurozone CPI for November is predicted to decrease by 0.4% monthly and to increase by 0.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone CPI for October which increased by 0.1% monthly and by 0.7% annualized. The Eurozone Core CPI for November is predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly and by 1.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Core CPI for August which increased by 0.1% monthly and by 1.1% annualized.
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate: The Eurozone Unemployment Rate for October is predicted at 7.5%. Forex traders can compare this to the Eurozone Unemployment Rate for September which was reported at 7.5%.
- Italian GDP: The Final Italian GDP for the third-quarter is predicted to increase by 0.1% quarterly and by 0.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Italian GDP for the third-quarter which increased by 0.1% quarterly and by 0.3% annualized.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Canadian Dollar trades:
- Canadian GDP: The Canadian GDP for September is predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the Canadian GDP for August which increased by 0.1% monthly. The Canadian GDP for the third-quarter is predicted to increase by 1.3% quarterly and by 1.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Canadian GDP for the second-quarter which increased by 3.7% quarterly and by 1.3% annualized.
- Canadian Industrial Product Price Index and Canadian Raw Materials Price Index: The Canadian Industrial Product Price Index for October is predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly and the Canadian Raw Materials Price Index is predicted to increase by 0.5% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the Canadian Industrial Product Price Index for September which was reported flat at 0.0% monthly and to the Canadian Raw Materials Price Index which decreased by 0.1% monthly.
Should price action for the EURCAD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.4585 to 1.4645 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.4620
- Take Profit Zone: 1.4855 – 1.4915
- Stop Loss Level: 1.4575
Should price action for the EURCAD breakdown below 1.4585 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.4575
- Take Profit Zone: 1.4415 – 1.4465
- Stop Loss Level: 1.4620
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