Forex traders are looking forward to IFO data out of Germany, economists predict a small increase in all three categories. The Eurozone’s largest economy has been a drag on the trading bloc, and data continues to disappoint. The EURCAD remains in a holding pattern inside its horizontal resistance area, which direction will today’s data move this currency pair? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at the upside potential as well as the downside risk in this currency pair.
CPI data out of Canada is expected to show a decrease in monthly inflation. The Bank of Canada has sent mixed signals regarding monetary policy, and economic data clocked in weaker-than-expected over the past few trading sessions. Will today’s CPI data encourage EURCAD bulls to attempt a breakout, or will bears force a breakdown? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Euro trades:
- German PPI: The German PPI for November was reported flat at 0.0% monthly and increased by 0.7% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.1% monthly and a decrease of 0.6% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the German PPI for October, which decreased by 0.2% monthly and by 0.6% annualized.
- German IFO: The German IFO Business Climate Index for December is predicted at 95.5. Forex traders can compare this to the German IFO Business Climate Index for November, which was reported at 95.0. The German IFO Current Assessment Index for December is predicted at 98.1. Forex traders can compare this to the German IFO Current Assessment Index for November, which was reported at 97.9. The German IFO Expectations Index for December is predicted at 93.0. Forex traders can compare this to the German IFO Expectations Index for November, which was reported at 92.1.
- Eurozone Final CPI: The Eurozone CPI for November is predicted to decrease by 0.3% monthly and to increase by 1.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Eurozone CPI for November, which increased by 0.1% monthly and by 1.0% annualized. The Final Eurozone Core CPI for November is predicted to decrease by 0.5% monthly and to increase by 1.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Eurozone Core CPI for November, which decreased by 0.5% monthly and which increase by 1.3% annualized. The Final Eurozone Harmonized Core CPI for November is predicted to decrease by 0.4% monthly and to increase by 1.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Eurozone Harmonized Core CPI for November, which increased by 0.1% monthly and by 1.5% annualized.
Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for Canadian trades:
- Canadian CPI: The Canadian CPI for November is predicted to decrease by 0.1% monthly and to increase by 2.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Canadian CPI for October, which increased by 0.3% monthly and by 1.9% annualized. The Canadian Core CPI for November is predicted to increase by 1.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Canadian Core CPI for October, which increased by 1.9% annualized. The Core CPI-Median for November is predicted to increase by 2.2% annualized and the Core CPI-Trim is predicted to increase by 2.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Core CPI-Median for October, which increased by 2.2% annualized and to the Core CPI-Trim, which increased by 2.1% annualized.
Should price action for the EURCAD remain inside the or breakdown below the 1.4630 to 1.4710 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.4655
- Take Profit Zone: 1.4415 – 1.4465
- Stop Loss Level: 1.4745
Should price action for the EURCAD breakout above 1.4710 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.4745
- Take Profit Zone: 1.4860 – 1.4930
- Stop Loss Level: 1.4710
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