AUDUSD Fundamental Analysis – August 15th 2019

Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Australian Dollar trades:

• Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations: Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations for August increased by 3.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations for July which increased by 3.2% annualized.
• Australian Employment Report: The Australian Employment Change for July was reported at 41.4K. Economists predicted a figure of 14.0K. Forex traders can compare this to the Australian Employment Change for June which was reported at 0.5K. The Unemployment Rate for July was reported at 5.2%. Economists predicted a reading of 5.2%. Forex traders can compare this to the Unemployment Rate for June which was reported at 5.2%. 34.5K Full-Time Positions and 6.7K Part-Time Positions were created in July. Forex traders can compare this to the creation of 21.0K Full-Time Positions and to the loss of 23.3K Part-Time Positions which were reported in June. The Labor Force Participation Rate for July was reported at 66.1%. Economists predicted a reading of 66.0%. Forex traders can compare this to the Labor Force Participation Rate for June which was reported at 66.0%.
• RBA FX Transactions: RBA FX Transactions for July were reported at A$837M. Forex traders can compare this to RBA FX Transactions for June which were reported at A$1,478M. RBA FX Government Transactions for July were reported at -A$961M and RBA FX Other Transactions were reported at A$4,377M. Forex traders can compare this to RBA FX Government Transactions for June which were reported at -A$1,546 and to RBA FX Other Transactions which were reported at A$3,845M.
• Chinese New Home Prices: Chinese New Home Prices for July increased by 0.59% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Chinese New Home Prices for June which increased by 0.66% monthly.

Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:

• US Empire Manufacturing Index: The US Empire Manufacturing Index for August is predicted at 1.9. Forex traders can compare this to the US Empire Manufacturing Index for July which was reported at 4.3.
• US Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs: Preliminary US Non-Farm Productivity for the second-quarter is predicted to increase by 1.4% quarterly and Unit Labor Costs are predicted to increase by 1.8% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to US Non-Farm Productivity for the first-quarter which increased by 3.4% quarterly and to Unit Labor Costs which decreased by 1.6% quarterly.
• US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook for August is predicted at 10.0. Forex traders can compare this to the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook for July which was reported at 21.8.
• US Advanced Retail Sales: US Advanced Retail Sales for July are predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly and Retail Sales Less Autos are predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Advanced Retail Sales for June which increased by 0.4% monthly and to Retail Sales Less Autos which increased by 0.4% monthly. Retail Sales Less Autos and Gas for July are predicted to increase by 0.5% monthly and Retail Sales Control Group are predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Retail Sales Less Autos and Gas for June which increased by 0.7% monthly and to Retail Sales Control Group which increased by 0.7% monthly.
• US Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of August 10th are predicted at 212K and US Continuing Claims for the week of August 3rd are predicted at 1,685K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of August 3rd which were reported at 209K and to US Continuing Claims for the week of July 27th which were reported at 1,684K.
• US Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production: US Industrial Production for July is predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly and Manufacturing Production is predicted to decrease by 0.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Industrial Production for June which was reported flat at 0.0% monthly and to Manufacturing Production which increased by 0.4% monthly. Capacity Utilization for July is predicted at 77.8%. Forex traders can compare this to Capacity Utilization for June which was reported at 77.9%.
• US NAHB Housing Market Index: The US NAHB Housing Market Index for August is predicted at 66. Forex traders can compare this to the US NAHB Housing Market Index for July which was reported at 65.
• US Business Inventories: US Business Inventories for June are predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Business Inventories for May which increased by 0.1% monthly.

Should price action for the AUDUSD remain inside the or breakout above the 0.6745 to 0.6815 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:

• Timeframe: D1
• Recommendation: Long Position
• Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.6780
• Take Profit Zone: 0.7020 – 0.7080
• Stop Loss Level: 0.6735

Should price action for the AUDUSD breakdown below 0.6745 the following trade set-up is recommended:

• Timeframe: D1
• Recommendation: Short Position
• Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.6735
• Take Profit Zone: 0.6565 – 0.6635
• Stop Loss Level: 0.6780

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