The absence of critical statistics from the EU today is likely to lead to a return of investors’ focus on the economic prospects of the US and eurozone economies, as well as on the May indicators of the US inflation rate. In addition, Australian business statistics may affect future investor sentiment for the Australian dollar.
This morning statistics from Australia was published, which in the near future can seriously affect the rate of the national currency, as well as the financial and credit policy of the RBA.
The NAB business confidence index rose from 0 to +7 in May. According to the latest monthly survey, the business conditions index fell from +3 to +1. There were also reductions in the following subindexes:
- The subindex of profitability decreased from +1 to -3, and the trading index decreased from +8 to +3.
- Prospects for forwarding orders also weakened: the subindex decreased from -2 to -3.
- The recovery of the employment index from -1 to +2 was the only positive indicator for the month.
The increase in confidence was due to the expected decline in the RBA rate earlier this month. Since the forecast indicators are flashing red strongly, it is expected that the confidence of the business community in the Australian currency will soon weaken again.
The Australian dollar fell from 0.6965 to 0.6957 against the USD after the release was published.
For the single European currency, today is expected to be quite a quiet day. The lack of important statistics will leave the euro in the hands of market sentiment towards the US economy.
Also, any news regarding the trade war between Washington and Beijing will have an impact on EUR, as well as data on US inflation for May.
Fed Chairman Powell said that his office is ready to intervene and overcome concerns about easing inflationary pressures. Any weak inflation figures in the United States will support the single currency.
At the time of writing, the EURUSD pair is trading steadily at 1.1316.
For the British pound, after mixed statistics the day before, the emphasis is shifted to conditions in the labor market. While the market will focus on the number of applications and average earnings, the unemployment rate is likely to remain stable.
At the time of writing, the GBPUSD pair is trading with a slight increase at the mark of 1, 2704.
Forex trading recommendations:
EURUSD: Sell. Entry point– 1, 1317. Take Profit – 1, 1302. Stop Loss – 1, 1343.
USDCHF: Buy. Entry point – 0, 9899. Take Profit – 0, 9920. Stop Loss – 0, 9864.
AUDUSD: Sell. Entry point– 0, 6958. Take Profit – 0, 6944. Stop Loss – 0, 6982.
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