Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for July is predicted at -27.6. Forex traders can compare this to the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for June, reported at -26.0.
French Consumer Confidence for June is predicted at 84. Forex traders can compare this to French Consumer Confidence for May, reported at 86.
US Preliminary Wholesale Inventories for June are predicted to increase 2.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Wholesale Inventories for May, which rose 2.2% monthly.
The US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 for April is predicted to increase 2.00% monthly and 21.00% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 for March, which rose 2.40% monthly and 21.20% annualized.
US Consumer Confidence for June is predicted at 100.4. Forex traders can compare this to US Consumer Confidence for May, reported at 106.4.
Financial markets could not sustain last week’s bear market rally and closed moderately lower in the US. Yesterday’s light economic data session produced mixed results that confirmed existing trends. US durable goods orders were revised downward for April but beat expectations for May. It confirmed consumers continue their debt-fueled patterns while the manufacturing sector for June, as measured by the Dallas Federal Manufacturing Business Index, fell deeper into contractionary territory following May’s slump.
Pending US homes sales posted a surprise increase despite surging mortgage rates, as buyers closed deals before another spike in financing costs. Bond yields continue to climb, increasing borrowing costs, as the US Federal Reserve is likely to hike interest rates by another 75 basis points to 2.50% next month. The strengthening bear market can last several years, resulting in lower highs and lower lows as the global economy is moving closer to a recession. As central banks remain behind the inflationary curve they created, a period of stagflation could follow.
The forecast for gold remains bullish as this precious metal trades at a strong horizontal support area. Adding to bullishness is the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud, which ended its downtrend and turned flat. Traders should monitor the ascending Tenkan-sen for a bullish crossover above the flat Kijun-sen, which could trigger more buying pressure. The CCI moved lower following its breakout from extreme oversold territory but is expected to record a higher low from where it can accelerate higher. Can bulls regain complete control over price action in gold and push this precious metal into its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for XAU/USD remain inside the or breakout above the 1,805.00 to 1,841.90 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1,826.00
- Take Profit Zone: 1,967.10 – 1,998.20
- Stop Loss Level: 1,786.90
Should price action for XAU/USD breakdown below 1,805.00, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1,786.90
- Take Profit Zone: 1,722.10 – 1,759.10
- Stop Loss Level: 1,805.00
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