What to expect from NFP release?

Tomorrow, on the first day of February, traders' attention will be directed to a fresh package of American fundamental data on the labor market.

NonFarm Payrolls

Last data: 312K

Consensus forecast: 165K

The average market outlook for employment is 165 thousand after 312 thousand in the last month, although we tend to believe that the numbers may be around 150 thousand. This is not bad for the American economy, since it means the fact that employers continue to actively fight for good personnel, which, in turn, can spur salary growth sufficiently.

If this forecast is justified, then we can expect a moderate growth of the US currency.

Average Hourly Earnings

Last data: 0.4%

Consensus forecast: 0.3%

Average Hourly Earnings, according to our forecast, will slightly decrease - to 0.3% on a monthly basis. The last release brought a surprise in the form of growth up to 0.4%. The current forecast does not mean a trend reversal, especially considering the recent good reports of American companies.

If the forecast is justified, it will contribute to the growth of the US dollar, and together with strong NFP numbers can lead to a short-term rally.

Unemployment Rate

Last data: 3.9%

Consensus forecast: 3.9%

The unemployment rate is likely to remain at the same level, compared with the previous month, when the indicator figures for a short time alarmed investors. However, experts tend to consider a slight increase in the numbers of the indicator as a temporary phenomenon.

If this forecast is justified, then traders can expect the growth of the US currency. In case of excellent data on other indicators, it is worth waiting for a short-term rally of the US currency.