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What to expect from the US labor market data?
This Friday, market participants will focus on labor statistics from the United States. Employment in the non-agricultural sector (NonFarm Payrolls), Average Hourly Earnings, as well as the Unemployment Rate will determine the future direction of the US currency.
The unemployment rate is the most stable indicator
Last data: 130K Consensus forecast: 145K
We believe that the number of new jobs outside the US agricultural sector will be about 145K. The United States is currently well tolerated by the trade war with China. This factor may well turn into advantage even figures such as 145K, which of course are below 200+, to which American statisticians began to accustom us a few months ago.
If the forecast is true, then traders should expect a moderate increase in the dollar against its main competitors.
Average Hourly Earnings
Last data: 0.4% Consensus forecast: 0.3%
Salary growth is likely to decline to 0.3%. US stock indices continue to be close to historic highs, and this indicates a good, in general, the state of the US market. Nevertheless, a wave of strikes in General Motors factories that swept the country last month showed that the dynamics of wage growth is not going as smoothly as previously assumed.
If this forecast is true, then this will contribute to moderate growth of the American dollar.
Last data: 3.7% Consensus forecast: 3.7%
The US unemployment rate is still the only more or less stable indicator. We do not expect any changes in the upcoming release and believe that its figures will remain unchanged at 3.7%.
If this forecast is true, it can lead to a short-term strengthening of the US currency.
Forex trading recommendations
EURUSD:Buy. Entry point – 1, 0955. Take profit – 1, 0976. Stop Loss – 1, 0919.
AUDUSD:Sell. Entry point – 0, 6719. Take profit – 0, 6704. Stop Loss – 0, 6745.
USDCAD:Buy. Entry point – 1, 3316. Take profit – 1, 3333. Stop Loss – 1, 3288.