This Friday, market participants will focus on labor statistics from the United States. Employment in the non-agricultural sector (NonFarm Payrolls), Average Hourly Earnings, as well as the Unemployment Rate will determine the future direction of the US currency.
NonFarm Payrolls
Last data: 164K
Consensus forecast: 159K
In anticipation of key macroeconomic events, attention should be paid to the declining ISM index, which continues to reflect a weak forecast for production in the United States. It is expected that employment in the non-agricultural sector will drop to the level of 159K, which is quite realistic due to a decrease in employment in production and a slowdown in job creation in the service sector.
Also, we should not forget about the negative impact of the escalation of the trade war between the United States and China, which not only encourages investors to withdraw from dollar assets but also makes large manufacturers think about creating jobs outside the United States.
If the forecast is true, then traders should expect moderate depreciation of the American currency against major competitors.
Average Hourly Earnings
Last data: 0.3%
Consensus forecast: 0.3%
Average hourly earnings data is likely to remain at the same level of 0.3%. These are good numbers, given the latest, not very optimistic, data on American production. The fact that this indicator holds its position can serve as an optimistic signal for investors, although it does not have a decisive influence.
If this forecast comes true, it will help keep the American currency at its current levels in the Forex market.
Unemployment Rate
Last data: 3.7%
Consensus forecast: 3.7%
Low unemployment remains one of President Donald Trump’s main pride. Although the inhibition of growth in wage levels somewhat offset the positive effect of this indicator. Nevertheless, it is still one of the determinants of the further behavior of the American currency. We believe that the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 3.7% level.
If this forecast is true, it can lead to a short-term strengthening of the US currency.
USDCHF: Buy. Entry point – 0, 9834. Take profit – 0, 9856. Stop Loss – 0, 9796.
USDCAD: Buy. Entry point – 1, 3216. Take profit – 1, 3232. Stop Loss – 1, 3188.
AUDUSD: Sell. Entry point – 0, 6814. Take Profit – 0, 6798. Stop Loss – 0, 6841.
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