On this Friday, the attention of the Forex market participants will be directed to a fresh package of fundamental data on the labor market of the United States.
NonFarm Payrolls
Last data: 304K
Consensus forecast: 185K
We expect a rather impressive decline in the number of people employed in the US non-farm sector - 185K after 304K of the previous figure. It is impossible to call this an excellent forecast, and at the same time it is not necessary to take these figures as the beginning of a negative trend on this indicator. We tend to give them a temporary character.
If this forecast comes true, then we can expect a moderate decline in the US currency.
Average Hourly Earnings
Last data: 0.1%
Consensus forecast: 0.3%
The Average HourlyEarnings level, according to our forecast, will rise to 0.3% on a monthly basis. The last release disappointed market participants a bit, so the expected numbers should put everything in its place. In favor of the growth of wages also, although indirectly, can speak the fact of increasing revenues and expanding the production of a number of American firms.
If the forecast is justified, it will contribute to the growth of the US currency.
Unemployment Rate
Last data: 4.0%
Consensus forecast: 3.9%
The unemployment rate is likely to please market participants with their numbers at 3.9%. It is no secret that each release of this indicator with numbers starting at 4.0%, as it was a month ago, provokes rumors about the end of the era of one of the lowest unemployment rates in US history. Nevertheless, the projected 3.9% will not only continue the positive trend, but may well become the next starting point for future records.
If this forecast is justified, then traders can expect an increase of the US dollar. In the case of excellent data on other indicators, it is worth waiting for a short rally of the American currency.
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