Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
South African Mining Production for August is predicted to decrease by 6.0% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to South African Mining Production for July, which contracted by 8.4%.
The US CPI for September is predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly and 8.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US CPI for August, which rose 0.1% monthly and 8.3% annualized. The US Core CPI for September is predicted to expand 0.5% monthly and 6.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US Core CPI for August, which rose 0.6% monthly and 6.3% annualized.
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of October 8th are predicted at 225K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of October 1st are predicted at 1,365K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of October 1st, reported at 219K, and to US Continuing Claims for the week of September 24th, reported at 1,361K.
US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending October 7th are predicted at 123B cubic feet. Traders can compare this to US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending September 30th, reported at 129B cubic feet.
US Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending October 7th are predicted at 1.750M. Traders can compare this to US Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending September 30th, reported at -1.356M. US Gasoline Inventories for the week ending October 7th are predicted at -1.825M, and US Distillate Stocks at -2.050M. Traders can compare this to US Gasoline Inventories for the week ending September 30th, reported at -4.728M, and US Distillate Stocks at -3.443M.
Traders await today’s US CPI data, especially following yesterday’s hotter-than-expected PPI data and minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, where Fed members discussed keeping interest rates higher for longer amid persistent inflation and inflationary expectations.
The forecast for the USD/ZAR has turned cautiously bearish after price action reached the bottom range of a multi-year horizontal resistance area. Confirming the lack of short-term bullishness are the Kijun-sen and the Tenkan-sen, which turned sideways, suggesting upside exhaustion. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud also entered a sideways drift, with the Senkou Span A and the Senkou Span B flat, from where a downside shift is possible. Traders should closely monitor the CCI after it has formed a negative divergence in extreme overbought territory. A breakdown below 100 could trigger a sell-off. Can bears capitalize on favorable conditions and force the USD/ZAR into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the USD/ZAR remain inside the or breakdown below the 18.1200 to 18.4750 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 18.3000
- Take Profit Zone: 17.1600 – 17.4125
- Stop Loss Level: 18.9350
Should price action for the USD/ZAR breakout above 18.4750, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 18.9350
- Take Profit Zone: 19.2350 – 19.3275
- Stop Loss Level: 18.4750
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