Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The US CPI for October is predicted to increase by 0.6% monthly and 8.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US CPI for September, which rose 0.4% monthly and 8.2% annualized. The US Core CPI for October is predicted to expand 0.5% monthly and 6.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US Core CPI for September, which rose 0.6% monthly and 6.6% annualized.
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of November 5th are predicted at 220K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of October 29th are predicted at 1,475K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of October 29th, reported at 217K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of October 22nd, reported at 1,485K.
US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending November 4th are predicted at 84B cubic feet. Traders can compare this to US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending October 28th, reported at 107B cubic feet.
The US Monthly Budget Statement for October is predicted at -$90.0B. Forex traders can compare this to the US Monthly Budget Statement for September, reported at -$430.0B.
South African Mining Production for September is predicted to decrease by 4.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to South African Mining Production for August, which contracted by 5.9%.
South African Manufacturing Production for September is predicted to drop 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to South African Manufacturing Production for August, which increased 2.1% monthly and 1.4% annualized.
Today’s focus remains on the US mid-term election results, where control of the Senate is undecided. The expected Red Wave did not materialize, but Republicans are on course for a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives, sufficient to block more debt-funded spending and tax increases by Democrats. After losing the Pennsylvania Senate seat, the best possible outcome is a 50-50 split Senate, with Democratic Vice President Harris receiving a casting vote to break any potential ties. The one independent Senator is counted with the Democrats, given closer alignment, with Republicans having more outright party Senators.
The forecast for the USD/ZAR remains bearish after the horizontal resistance area rejected this currency pair. Short-term volatility could rise, but the downtrend can extend following a brief pause at its narrowing and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud. The flat Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen confirm the absence of bullish momentum. Traders should monitor the CCI after it plunged into extreme oversold territory and fresh multi-week lows. A breakout is likely to precede an extension of the sell-off. Can bears maintain control over the USD/ZAR and force price action into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the USD/ZAR remain inside the or breakdown below the 17.6450 to 17.8725 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 17.7750
- Take Profit Zone: 16.8450 – 17.1600
- Stop Loss Level: 18.1050
Should price action for the USD/ZAR breakout above 17.8725, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 18.1050
- Take Profit Zone: 18.3600 – 18.5650
- Stop Loss Level: 17.8725
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