Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
South African M3 Money Supply for February surged by 10.81% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 9.60%. Forex traders can compare this to South African M3 Money Supply for January, which rose by 9.57% annualized. Private Sector Credit for February expanded by 8.28% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 8.00%. Forex traders can compare this to Private Sector Credit for February, which rose by 8.42% annualized.
The South African PPI for February is predicted to increase by 0.7% monthly and 12.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the South African PPI for January, which contracted by 0.6% monthly and surged by 12.7% annualized.
The South African Reserve Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points from 7.25% to 7.50%. Forex traders can compare this to the previous South African Reserve Bank meeting, where it raised interest rates by 75 basis points from 7.00% to 7.25%. The interest rate tightening policy began in November 2021 when interest rates stood at 3.50%. Forex traders should pay attention to comments about future monetary policy to assess if the South African central bank is nearing the end of its tightening cycle after it slowed its pace in 2023.
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of March 25th are predicted at 196K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of March 18th at 1,697K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of March 18th, reported at 191K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of March 11th, at 1,694K.
The final US GDP for the fourth quarter is predicted to rise by 2.7% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to the third quarter GDP, which increased by 3.2% quarterly. The final GDP Price Index for the fourth quarter is predicted to expand by 3.9% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to the third quarter GDP Price Index, which rose 4.4% quarterly. The Final Core PCE for the second quarter is predicted to increase by 4.3% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to the first quarter Core PCE, which rose 4.7% quarterly.
US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending March 24th are predicted at -54B cubic feet. Traders can compare this to US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending March 17th, reported at -72B cubic feet.
The forecast for the USD/ZAR remains bearish after this currency pair moved below its flat Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen, where a pending bearish crossover could increase selling pressure. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud flattened out, and a narrowing will further add to downside pressure. Traders should also monitor the CCI following its double breakdown, which is on course to correct into extreme oversold territory with plenty of downside potential. Can bears continue to pressure the USD/ZAR toward its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the USD/ZAR remain inside the or breakdown below the 18.0115 to 18.1775 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 18.1050
- Take Profit Zone: 17.5600 – 17.7275
- Stop Loss Level: 18.2750
Should price action for the USD/ZAR breakout above 18.1775, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 18.2750
- Take Profit Zone: 18.5625 – 18.7115
- Stop Loss Level: 18.1775
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