The final reading for second-quarter GDP out of the US is expected to confirm the previously reported data. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE is predicted to remain at 1.7% annualized and below the 2.0% inflation target. With the slowing economy, inflation remains absent despite a tight labor market. Forex traders will also look forward to more housing data following yesterday’s upside surprise.The USDSGD just moved above resistance, will today’s economic data result in more upside or will price action correct to the downside. Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Singapore has moved further into the global spotlight, especially since the Hong Kong protests which resulted in asset reallocation into the city state. The Singapore Dollar has also gained more traction with forex traders. This morning’s data showed a disappointing reading in industrial production which extended its annualized contraction in another data point confirming the global economy is slowing faster than expected. The USDSGD moved higher, will a rally follow the release of US data? Today’s fundamental analysis will cover both directions of price action in this currency pair.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US GDP: The Advanced US GDP for the second-quarter is predicted to increase by 2.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous second-quarter GDP which increased by 2.0% annualized. Personal Consumption for the second-quarter is predicted to increase by 4.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to previous second-quarter Personal Consumption which increased by 4.7% annualized. The GDP Price Index for the second-quarter is predicted to increase by 2.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous second-quarter GDP Price Index which increased by 2.4% annualized. The Core PCE for the second-quarter is predicted to increase by 1.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous second-quarter Core PCE which increased by 1.7% annualized.
- US Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of September 21st are predicted at 211K and US Continuing Claims for the week of September 14th are predicted at 1,666K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of September 14th which were reported at 208K and to US Continuing Claims for the week of September 7th which were reported at 1,661K.
- US Wholesale Inventories: US Preliminary Wholesale Inventories for August are predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Wholesale Inventories for July which increased by 0.2% monthly.
- US Pending Home Sales: US Pending Home Sales for August are predicted to increase by 1.0% monthly and by 1.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to US Pending Home Sales for July which decreased by 2.5% monthly and which increased by 1.7% annualized.
- US Advanced Goods Trade Balance: The US Advanced Goods Trade Balance for August is predicted at -$77.3B. Forex traders can compare this to the US Advanced Goods Trade Balance for July which was reported at -$72.5B.
- US Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index: The US Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for September is predicted at -4. Forex traders can compare this to the US Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for August which was reported at -2.
Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for Singapore Dollar trades:
- Singapore Industrial Production: Singapore Industrial Production for August decreased by 7.5% monthly and by 8.0% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.1% and a decrease of 0.7%. Forex traders can compare this to Singapore Industrial Production for July which increased by 3.6% monthly and which decreased by 0.1% annualized.
Should price action for the USDSGD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.3765 to 1.3810 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.3795
- Take Profit Zone: 1.3900 – 1.3930
- Stop Loss Level: 1.3735
Should price action for the USDSGD breakdown below 1.3765 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.3735
- Take Profit Zone: 1.3620 – 1.3655
- Stop Loss Level: 1.3765
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