The US Dollar extended losses versus the Swiss Franc after the US Fed kept interest rates on hold, as was expected. Forward guidance called for interest rates to remain on hold throughout 2020, suggesting a weak economy ahead. The USDCHF completed a breakdown below support, how will this currency pair react after the SNB press conference? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at the upside potential as well as the downside risk in this currency pair.
Today’s SNB interest rate decision will be closely followed. Economists expected no change, but the option of an interest rate cut was touted. Forex traders hope for more clarity during the press conference scheduled following the official announcement. The USDCHF has reached a key support area, will the SNB provide enough to force a breakdown? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of December 7th are predicted at 212K and US Continuing Claims for the week of November 30th are predicted at 1,678K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of November 30th, which were reported at 203K and to US Continuing Claims for the week of November 23rd, which were reported at 1,693K.
- US PPI: The US PPI for November is predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly and by 1.3% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US PPI for October, which increased by 0.4% monthly and which increased 1.1% annualized. The US Core PPI for November is predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly and by 1.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US Core PPI for October, which increased by 0.3% monthly and by 1.6% annualized. The US Core PPI ex Trade for November is predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly and by 1.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US Core PPI ex Trade for October, which increased by 0.2% monthly, and by 1.5% annualized.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Swiss Franc trades:
- Swiss Producer & Import Prices: Swiss Producer & Import Prices for November decreased by 0.4% monthly, and by 2.5% annualized. Economists predicted a flat reading of 0.0% monthly, and a decrease of 2.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Swiss Producer & Import Prices for October, which decreased by 0.2% monthly, and by 2.4% annualized.
- Swiss National Bank Sight Deposit Interest Rate: The Swiss National Bank Sight Deposit Interest Rate is predicted at -0.75%. Forex traders can compare this to the previous Swiss National Bank Sight Deposit Interest Rate, which was reported at -0.75%.
Should price action for the USDCHF remain inside the or breakdown below the 0.9800 to 0.9850 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.9825
- Take Profit Zone: 0.9660 – 0.9715
- Stop Loss Level: 0.9900
Should price action for the USDCHF breakout above 0.9850 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.9900
- Take Profit Zone: 0.9970 – 1.0000
- Stop Loss Level: 0.9800
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