Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for September are predicted to drop by 1.1% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation to decrease by 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Durable Goods Orders for August, which were flat at 0.0% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation, which increased by 0.5% monthly.
The final US Michigan Consumer Sentiment for October is predicted at 68.9. Forex traders can compare this to US Michigan Consumer Confidence for September, reported at 70.1. Final Current Conditions for October are expected at 62.7, and Final Expectations are predicted at 72.9. Forex traders can compare this to Current Conditions for September, reported at 63.3, and to Expectations, reported at 72.9. Final US Michigan Inflation Expectations for October are predicted at 2.9%, and Final US Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations at 3.0%. Forex traders can compare this to Final US Michigan Inflation Expectations for September, reported at 2.7%, and Final US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations at 3.1%.
Canadian retail sales for August are predicted to increase by 0.5% monthly, and Canadian core retail sales to rise by 0.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Canadian retail sales for July, which expanded by 0.9% monthly, and Canadian core retail sales by 0.4% monthly.
The Canadian New Housing Price Index for September is predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the Canadian New Housing Price Index for August, which came in flat at 0.0% monthly.
The forecast for the USD/CAD turned bearish after this currency pair advanced into its horizontal resistance area. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen have flatlined, confirming the absence of short-term upside momentum. The Senkou Span A of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud is moving higher with the Senkou Span B flat, narrowing the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud. The lack of bullishness could result in a failed bullish crossover. Traders should also monitor the CCI in extreme overbought territory, where a negative divergence has formed. A breakdown below 100 could trigger the expected sell-off. Can bears regain control over the USD/CAD and force price action into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the USD/CAD remain inside the or breakdown below the 1.3835 to 1.3890 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade setup:
- Time frame: D1
- Recommendation: Short position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.3855
- Take Profit Zone: 1.3645 – 1.3695
- Stop Loss Level: 1.3945
Alternative scenario:
Should price action for the USD/CAD break out above 1.3890, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Time frame: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.3945
- Take Profit Zone: 1.4000 – 1.4050
- Stop Loss Level: 1.3890
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