Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The US NFP Report for April is predicted to show 180K job additions and an unemployment rate of 3.6%. Forex traders can compare this to the US NFP Report for March, which showed 236K job additions and an unemployment rate of 3.5%. Private Payrolls for April are predicted to show 160K job additions and Manufacturing Payrolls 5K job losses. Forex traders can compare this to Private Payrolls for March, which showed 189K job additions, and Manufacturing Payrolls, which showed 1K job losses. The Average Work Week for April is predicted at 34.4 hours. Forex traders can compare this to the Average Work Week for March, reported at 34.4 hours. Average Hourly Earnings for April are predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly and 4.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Average Hourly Earnings for March, which rose 0.3% monthly and 4.2% annualized. The Labor Force Participation Rate for April is predicted at 62.5%. Forex traders can compare this to the Labor Force Participation Rate for March, reported at 62.6%.
US Consumer Credit for March is predicted at $16.50B. Forex traders can compare this to US Consumer Credit for February at $15.29B.
The Canadian Employment Report for April is predicted to show the addition of 20.0K jobs and an Unemployment Rate of 5.1%. Forex traders can compare this to the Canadian Employment Report for March, which showed the addition of 34.7K jobs, and an Unemployment Rate of 5.0%.
US initial jobless claims have trended higher, but Challenger Job Cuts were mixed, and the ADP employment report suggests a strong labor market with wage-based inflationary pressures. All eyes are on the April NFP report to gauge the health of the labor market and gauge which trends dominate. The US Fed signaled that it might pause its interest rate hikes, but a hot labor market and sticky inflation could force more tightening.
The forecast for the USD/CAD remains cautiously bearish after the Senkou Span A of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud rejected price action. A bearish crossover followed, adding to downside pressures, and price action completed a breakdown below the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud. Volatility could rise with this currency pair trapped between its flat Kijun-sen and descending Tenkan-sen, favoring bears taking control. Traders should also monitor the CCI after it recorded a lower high in extreme overbought territory, followed by a double breakdown, which took this technical indicator below zero with more downside potential. Can bears maintain control over the USD/CAD and pressure price action into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the USD/CAD remain inside the or breakdown below the 1.3485 to 1.3560 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Time frame: D1
- Recommendation: Short position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.3510
- Take Profit Zone: 1.3275 – 1.3335
- Stop Loss Level: 1.3630
Alternative scenario:
Should price action for the USD/CAD breakout above 1.3560, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Time frame: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.3630
- Take Profit Zone: 1.3685 – 1.3720
- Stop Loss Level: 1.3560
Open your PaxForex Trading Account now and add this currency pair to your forex portfolio.
