Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for April are predicted to drop by 0.9% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation to expand by 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Durable Goods Orders for March, which rose by 2.6% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation, which increased by 0.2% monthly. Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for April are predicted to expand by 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for March, which rose by 0.2% monthly.
The final US Michigan Consumer Sentiment for May is predicted at 67.4. Forex traders can compare this to US Michigan Consumer Confidence for April, reported at 77.2. Final Current Conditions for May are predicted at 68.8, and Final Expectations are predicted at 66.5. Forex traders can compare this to Current Conditions for April, reported at 79.0, and Expectations at 76.0. Final US Michigan Inflation Expectations for May are predicted at 3.5%, and Final US Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations, at 3.1%. Forex traders can compare this to Final US Michigan Inflation Expectations for April, reported at 3.2%, and Final US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations at 3.0%.
Canadian Retail Sales for March are predicted to decrease by 0.1% monthly, and Canadian Core Retail Sales to accelerate by 0.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Canadian Retail Sales for February, which contracted by 0.1% monthly, and Canadian Core Retail Sales, which dropped by 0.3% monthly.
The forecast for the USD/CAD is cautiously bearish, with this currency pair trading at its horizontal resistance area. Following a bearish crossover, the Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen have flatlined. The Senkou Span A and the Senkou Span B of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud are also flat, but the Senkou Span A shows signs of drifting lower, adding to downside pressure. Traders should also monitor the CCI in extreme overbought territory. A sustained breakdown can trigger a correction. Can bears regain control over the USD/CAD and force price action into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the USD/CAD remain inside the or breakdown below the 1.3715 to 1.3760 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade setup:
- Time frame: D1
- Recommendation: Short position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.3735
- Take Profit Zone: 1.3475 – 1.3545
- Stop Loss Level: 1.3790
Alternative scenario:
Should price action for the USD/CAD break out above 1.3760, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Time frame: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.3790
- Take Profit Zone: 1.3845 – 1.3900
- Stop Loss Level: 1.3760
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