Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
US Retail Sales for June are predicted to increase by 0.5% monthly and Core Retail Sales by 0.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Retail Sales for May, which rose by 0.3% monthly, and Core Retail Sales by 0.1% monthly. Retail Sales Less Autos and Gas for June are predicted flat at 0.0% monthly, and Retail Sales in the Control Group to decrease by 0.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Retail Sales Less Autos and Gas for May, which increased by 0.4% monthly, and to Retail Sales in the Control Group, which rose 0.2% monthly.
US Industrial Production for June is predicted flat at 0.0% monthly, and Manufacturing Production flat at 0.0% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Industrial Production for May, which decreased by 0.2% monthly, and Manufacturing Production, which increased by 0.1% monthly. Capacity Utilization for June is predicted at 79.5%. Forex traders can compare this to Capacity Utilization for May, reported at 79.6%.
US Business Inventories for May are predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly, and Retail Inventories excluding Autos flat at 0.0%. Forex traders can compare this to US Business Inventories for April, which rose by 0.2% monthly, and Retail Inventories excluding Autos, which dropped by 0.2%.
The US NAHB Housing Market Index for July is predicted at 56. Forex traders can compare this to the US NAHB Housing Market Index for June, reported at 55.
US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions for May are predicted at $110.2B, US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions, including Swaps, at $122.1B, and US Total Net TIC Flows at $180.5B. Forex traders can compare this to US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions for April, reported at $127.8B, US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions, including Swaps, at $127.8B, and US Total Net TIC Flows at $48.4B.
The Canadian CPI for June is predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly and 3.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Canadian CPI for May, which rose by 0.4% monthly and 3.4% annualized. The Canadian Core CPI for June is predicted to expand by 0.5% monthly and 3.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Canadian Core CPI for May, which increased by 0.4% monthly and 3.7% annualized. The Canadian CPI-Median for June is predicted to expand by 3.7% annualized, and the Canadian CPI-Trimmed by 3.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Canadian CPI-Median for May, which rose by 3.9% annualized, and to the Canadian CPI-Trimmed by 3.8% annualized.
The forecast for the USD/CAD turned bearish as the descending Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud maintains downside pressure. This currency pair failed to extend its counter-trend advance and has dropped below its flat Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen. Traders should monitor the CCI following its breakout from extreme oversold conditions. Rising bearish pressures could force this technical indicator to reverse its gain, and it has plenty of downside potential. Can bears regain control over the USD/CAD and pressure price action into its horizontal support area and a fresh 2023 low? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the USD/CAD remain inside the or breakdown below the 1.3160 to 1.3240 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Time frame: D1
- Recommendation: Short position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.3200
- Take Profit Zone: 1.2870 – 1.2940
- Stop Loss Level: 1.3290
Alternative scenario:
Should price action for the USD/CAD breakout above 1.3240, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Time frame: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.3290
- Take Profit Zone: 1.3385 – 1.3435
- Stop Loss Level: 1.3240
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