The New Zealand Trade Balance showed a bigger deficit than economists expected as imports came in higher and exports rose. The New Zealand Dollar continued to push higher and the NZD/USD into its resistance level. Ongoing global economic worries, intensified by this morning’s Chinese industrial profits data, remain a top concern and forex traders will get a heavy dose of US economic data today. What impact will this have on price action? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and grow your balance trade-by-trade.
Economic data out of the US is expected to move the US Dollar on the back of Preliminary Durable Goods Orders and Personal Income and Personal Spending data. The final reading for third-quarter GDP is widely expected to confirm the previous reading. The Chicago PMI will also be in focus as it is expected to show the region in a recession. How will the NZDUSD react following the release of economic data out of the US? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look at the upside potential as well as the downside risk in this currency pair.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for New Zealand Dollar trades:
- New Zealand Trade Balance: The New Zealand Trade Balance for October was reported at -NZ$1,010M monthly and at -NZ$5,040M 12-month year-to-date. Economists predicted a figure of -NZ$1,000M and -NZ$4,900M. Forex traders can compare this to the New Zealand Trade Balance for September which was reported at -NZ$1,242M monthly and at -NZ$5,213M 12-month year-to-date. Exports for October were reported at NZ$5.03B and Imports were reported at NZ$6.05B. Economists predicted a figure of NZ$5.00B and of NZ$6.00B. Forex traders can compare this to Exports for September which were reported at NZ$4.47B and to Imports which were reported at NZ$5.71B.
- Chinese Industrial Profits: Chinese Industrial Profits for October decreased by 9.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Chinese Industrial Profits for September which decreased by 5.3% annualized.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders: US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for October are predicted to decrease by 0.7% monthly and Durables Excluding Transportation are predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Durable Goods Orders for September which decreased by 1.2% monthly and to Durables Excluding Transportation which decreased by 0.4% monthly. Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for October are predicted flat at 0.0% monthly and Capital Goods Shipments Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft are predicted flat at 0.0% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for September which decreased by 0.6% monthly and to Capital Goods Shipments Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft which decreased by 0.7% monthly.
- US GDP: The Advanced US GDP for the third-quarter is predicted to increase by 1.9% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous third-quarter GDP which increased by 1.9% annualized. Personal Consumption for the third-quarter is predicted to increase by 2.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous third-quarter Personal Consumption which increased by 2.9% annualized. The GDP Price Index for the third-quarter is predicted to increase by 1.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous third-quarter GDP Price Index which increased by 1.7% annualized. The Core PCE for the third-quarter is predicted to increase by 2.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the previous third-quarter Core PCE which increased by 2.2% annualized.
- US Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of November 23rd are predicted at 220K and US Continuing Claims for the week of November 16th are predicted at 1,690K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of November 16th which were reported at 227K and to US Continuing Claims for the week of November 9th which were reported at 1,695K.
- US Chicago PMI: The US Chicago PMI for November is predicted at 47.0. Forex traders can compare this to the US Chicago PMI for October which was reported at 43.2.
- US Personal Income and Personal Spending: US Personal Income for October is predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly and Personal Spending is predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Personal Income for September which increased by 0.3% monthly and to Personal Spending which increased by 0.2% monthly. Real Personal Spending for October is predicted flat at 0.0% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Real Personal Spending for September which increased by 0.2% monthly. The PCE Deflator for October is predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly and by 1.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the PCE Deflator for September which was reported flat at 0.0% monthly and which increased by 1.4% annualized. The PCE Core Deflator for October is predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly and by 1.7% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the PCE Core Deflator for September which was reported flat at 0.0% monthly and which increased by 1.7% annualized.
- US Pending Home Sales: US Pending Home Sales for October are predicted to decrease by 0.1% monthly and to increase by 5.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to US Pending Home Sales for September which increased by 1.5% monthly and by 6.3% annualized.
Should price action for the NZDUSD remain inside the or breakout above the 0.6400 to 0.6465 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.6425
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6585 – 0.6665
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6360
Should price action for the NZDUSD breakdown below 0.6400 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.6360
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6200 – 0.6240
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6400
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