Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The New Zealand Business PMI for September came in at 52.0. Forex traders can compare this to the New Zealand Business PMI for August, reported at 54.8.
The Chinese PPI for September rose 0.9% annualized, and the Chinese CPI by 2.8% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 1.0% and 2.8%. Forex traders can compare this to the Chinese PPI for August, which expanded by 2.3% annualized, and the Chinese CPI, which rose 2.5% annualized.
US Retail Sales for September are predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly, and Core Retail Sales to decrease by 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Retail Sales for August, which rose 0.3% monthly, and Core Retail Sales, which contracted 0.3% monthly. Retail Sales in the Control Group for September are predicted to rise 0.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Retail Sales in the Control Group for August, which rose 0.4% monthly.
The US Import Price Index for September is predicted to drop by 1.1% monthly, and the US Export Price Index by 1.0% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the US Import Price Index for August, which contracted by 1.0% monthly, and the US Export Price Index by 1.6% monthly.
US Business Inventories for August are predicted to increase by 0.9% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Business Inventories for July, which rose 0.6% monthly.
Preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment for October is predicted at 59.0. Forex traders can compare this to US Michigan Consumer Confidence for September, reported at 58.6. Preliminary Current Conditions for October are expected at 59.9, and Preliminary Expectations at 58.5. Forex traders can compare this to Current Conditions for September, reported at 59.7, and Expectations, reported at 58.0.
The forecast for the NZD/USD remains cautiously bullish despite hotter-than-expected inflation readings and an aggressive US Federal Reserve. This currency pair bounced off its horizontal support area, and the flat Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen suggest fading bearish pressures. Adding to the cautious bullish outlook is the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud, which shows signs of ending its descent with the Senkou Span B flat. Volatility could rise until the Senkou Span B follows suit. Traders should monitor the CCI following its breakout from extreme oversold territory. A move above zero could trigger more upside potential in choppy trading. Can bulls overcome bears and guide the NZD/USD into its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the NZD/USD remain inside the or breakout above 0.5625 to 0.5725 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.5665
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6015 – 0.6100
- Stop Loss Level: 0.5565
Should price action for the NZD/USD breakdown below 0.5625, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.5565
- Take Profit Zone: 0.5400 – 0.5470
- Stop Loss Level: 0.5625
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