Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The New Zealand Unemployment Rate for the first quarter came in at 3.4%. Economists predicted an Unemployment Rate of 3.5%. Forex traders can compare this to the Unemployment Rate for the fourth quarter, reported at 3.4%. The Employment Change for the first quarter came in at 0.8%. Economists predicted a rise of 0.4%. Forex traders can compare this to the Employment Change for the fourth quarter, reported at 0.2% quarterly. The Participation Rate for the first quarter was 72.0%. Economists predicted a Participation Rate of 71.7%. Forex traders can compare this to the Participation Rate for the fourth quarter, reported at 71.7%. The Labor Cost Index for the first quarter increased 0.9% quarterly and 4.5% annualized. Economists predicted a rise of 1.0% and 4.6%. Forex traders can compare this to the Labor Cost Index for the fourth quarter, which expanded 1.1% quarterly and 4.3% annualized.
The US ADP Employment Change for April is predicted at 148K. Forex traders can compare this to the US ADP Employment Change for March, reported at 145K.
Economists predict the US Final S&P Global Services PMI for April at 53.7 and the US Final S&P Global Composite PMI at 53.5. Forex traders can compare this to the US S&P Global Services PMI for March, reported at 52.6, and the US S&P Global Composite PMI at 52.3.
The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for April is predicted at 51.8, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index at 54.5. Forex traders can compare this to the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for March, reported at 51.2, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index reported at 55.4. ISM Prices Paid Index for April is predicted at 59.9, the ISM Employment Index at 52.6, and the ISM New Orders Index at 57.0. Forex traders can compare this to the ISM Prices Paid Index for March, reported at 59.5, the ISM Employment Index at 51.3, and the ISM New Orders Index at 52.2.
US Crude Oil Inventories Change for the week ending April 28th are predicted at -1.100M. Traders can compare this to US Crude Oil Inventories Change for the week ending April 21st, reported at -5.054M. US Gasoline Inventories Change for the week ending April 28th are predicted at -1.157M, and US Distillate Stocks Change at -1.084M. Traders can compare this to US Gasoline Inventories Change for the week ending April 21st, reported at -2.408M, and US Distillate Stocks Change at -0.576M. Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates for the week ending April 28th are predicted to increase by 0.3% week-over-week. Forex traders can compare this to Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates for the week ending April 21st, which rose by 0.3% week-over-week.
The US FOMC Interest Rate Decision is predicted to show interest rates at 5.25%. Forex traders can compare this to the previous US FOMC Interest Rate Decision, which showed interest rates at 5.00%. Traders will monitor the press conference thirty minutes after the announcement for clues if this is the final interest rate increase if more are to come, and what future monetary policy will look like.
The forecast for the NZD/USD remains bullish after this currency pair moved back into its Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud, supported by an ascending Tenkan-sen. Volatility could increase as the Kijun-sen has flatlined, and the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud could experience a false bearish crossover. Traders should also monitor the CCI in extreme overbought territory. This technical indicator may break down below 100 but maintain its position above zero. A renewed push higher following a breakdown will offer traders the final buy signal. Can bulls maintain control over the NZD/USD and guide price action into its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the NZD/USD remain inside the or breakout above 0.6205 to 0.6250 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.6230
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6380 – 0.6420
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6165
Should price action for the NZD/USD breakdown below 0.6205, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.6165
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6085 – 0.6110
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6205
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