Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The New Zealand Current Account Balance for the fourth quarter came in at -NZ$9.46B quarterly and -NZ$33.79B annualized, with the Current Account-to-GDP Ratio at -8.9%. Economists predicted a figure of -NZ$7.64B, -NZ$30.90B, and -8.3%. Forex traders can compare this to the New Zealand Current Account Balance for the third quarter, reported at -NZ$11.40B quarterly and -NZ$31.87B annualized, with the Current Account-to-GDP Ratio at -8.5%.
The US PPI for February is predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly and 5.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US PPI for January, which surged by 0.7% monthly and 6.0% annualized. The US Core PPI for February is predicted to expand by 0.4% monthly and by 5.2% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the US Core PPI for January, which rose by 0.5% monthly and 5.4% annualized.
US Retail Sales for February are predicted to decrease by 0.3% monthly and Core Retail Sales by 0.1% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Retail Sales for January, which rose 3.0% monthly, and Core Retail Sales by 2.3% monthly. Retail Sales in the Control Group for February are predicted to contract by 0.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Retail Sales in the Control Group for January, which expanded by 1.7% monthly.
The US Empire Manufacturing Index for March is predicted at -8.00. Forex traders can compare this to the US Empire Manufacturing Index for February, reported at -5.80.
US Business Inventories for January are predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly, and Retail Inventories, excluding Autos, by 0.2%. Forex traders can compare this to US Business Inventories for December, which rose 0.3% monthly, and Retail Inventories excluding Autos by 0.2%.
The US NAHB Housing Market Index for March is predicted at 40. Forex traders can compare this to the US NAHB Housing Market Index for February, reported at 42.
US Crude Oil Inventories Change for the week ending March 10th are predicted at 1.188M. Traders can compare this to US Crude Oil Inventories Change for the week ending March 3rd, reported at -1.694M. US Gasoline Inventories Change for the week ending March 10th are predicted at -1.820M and US Distillate Stocks Change at -1.172M. Traders can compare this to US Gasoline Inventories Change for the week ending March 3rd, reported at -1.134M, and US Distillate Stocks Change at 0.138M. Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates for the week ending March 10th are predicted to increase by 0.3% week-over-week. Forex traders can compare this to Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates for the week ending March 3rd, which rose by 0.2% week-over-week.
The forecast for the NZD/USD remains cautiously bullish after this currency pair broke out of its horizontal support area. Short-term upside momentum is flat with the Kijun-sen, the Tenkan-sen, and the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud flat, which could result in a volatility rise. Traders should monitor the CCI after it has formed a positive divergence in extreme oversold territory, followed by a double breakout. This technical indicator has more upside potential and could tip control to bulls. Will bulls capitalize on their advantage and regain control over the NZD/USD to push price action into its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the NZD/USD remain inside the or breakout above 0.6180 to 0.6235 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.6210
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6345 – 0.6400
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6130
Should price action for the NZD/USD breakdown below 0.6180, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.6130
- Take Profit Zone: 0.5990 – 0.6055
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6180
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