Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook for July decreased by 8.7%, and ANZ Business Confidence came in at -56.7. Forex traders can compare this to the New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook for June, which dropped 9.1%, and to ANZ Business Confidence, reported at -62.6.
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of July 23rd are predicted at 253K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of July 16th are predicted at 1,380K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of July 16th, reported at 251K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of July 9th, reported at 1,384K.
The Advanced US GDP for the second quarter is predicted to increase 0.5% quarterly. Forex traders can compare this to the first quarter GDP, which dropped 1.6% quarterly. The GDP Price Index for the second quarter is predicted to rise 7.9% quarterly, and the Core PCE by 4.5%. Forex traders can compare this to the first quarter GDP Price Index, which surged 8.3% quarterly, and the Core PCE, which increased 5.2% annualized.
US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending July 22nd are predicted at 22B cubic feet. Traders can compare this to US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending July 15th, reported at 32B cubic feet.
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points to 2.50% yesterday, as markets have expected. Fed Chief Powell sounded less hawkish, believing the US is not in a recession and suggesting the central bank could slow the magnitude of its monetary policy tightening. Equity markets in the US rallied, widening the bull trap, as Powell was wrong about inflation and the economy for the past two years. Today’s GDP report and inflation reading will provide the first snapshot of second-quarter economic activity and could confirm a recession while inflation remains red hot. The US Dollar faces a bearish future as recession alarms ring louder.
The forecast for the NZD/USD remains bullish after this currency pair accelerated from its horizontal support area. While the widening, descending Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud poses downside risks, the ascending Tenkan-sen can provide sufficient upside momentum until the descending Kijun-sen stabilizes. Volatility could increase as bulls and bears fight for control over price action, and traders should expect a minor pullback before the next move higher. The CCI recorded a higher high in extreme overbought territory before completing a breakdown. This technical indicator is likely to remain above zero, confirming bullishness, and set to drift higher, keeping the uptrend intact. Can bulls withstand bearish attacks and push the NZD/USD into its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the NZD/USD remain inside the or breakout above 0.6210 to 0.6300 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 0.6265
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6500 – 0.6575
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6165
Should price action for the NZD/USD breakdown below 0.6210, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 0.6165
- Take Profit Zone: 0.6000 – 0.6060
- Stop Loss Level: 0.6210
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