Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The New Zealand Current Account Balance for the fourth quarter came in at -NZ$7.26B quarterly and -NZ$20.23B annualized, with the Current Account-to-GDP Ratio at -5.8%. Economists predicted a figure of -NZ$6.21B, -NZ$19.38B, and -5.6%. Forex traders can compare this to the New Zealand Current Account Balance for the third quarter, reported at -NZ$8.30B quarterly and -NZ$15.86B annualized, with the Current Account-to-GDP Ratio at -4.6%.
The Japan Reuters Tankan Index for March came in at 8. Forex traders can compare this to the Japan Reuters Tankan Index for February, reported at 6.
The Japanese Trade Balance for February came in at -¥668.3B and the Japanese Adjusted Trade Balance at -¥1.03T. Forex traders can compare this to the Japanese Trade Balance for January, reported at -¥112.6B, and the Japanese Adjusted Trade Balance at -¥0.93T. Exports for February increased 19.1% annualized, and Imports surged 34.0% annualized. Economists predicted a rise of 21.0% and 28.0%. Forex traders can compare this to Exports for January, which rose 9.6% annualized, and Imports which increased 38.7% annualized.
Final Japanese Industrial Production for January decreased 0.8% monthly and 0.5% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Japanese Industrial Production for December, which contracted 1.0% monthly and rose 2.7% annualized. Capacity Utilization for January dropped 3.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Capacity Utilization for December, which decreased 0.4% monthly.
The forecast for the NZD/JPY turned bearish after price action lost its upside momentum, as confirmed by it Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen, which both flatlined. Adding to bearish signs is the latest D1 candlestick. It formed a hammer formation at resistance, suggesting a reversal is likely. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud points towards longer-term bullishness with the Senkou Span A crossing above its flat Senkou Span B and could provide the next meaningful support level. Increasing short-term bearish pressures is the CCI and its negative divergence in extreme overbought territory. A breakdown below 100 could trigger a correction. Will bears take control from bulls and pressure the NZD/JPY into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the NZD/JPY remain inside the or breakdown below the 79.750 to 80.650 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 80.200
- Take Profit Zone: 77.500 – 78.050
- Stop Loss Level: 81.00
Should price action for the NZD/JPY breakout above 80.650, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 81.000
- Take Profit Zone: 81.850 – 82.200
- Stop Loss Level: 80.650
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