Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
US Wholesale Inventories for September are predicted to increase by 0.8% monthly and Wholesale Trade Sales by 0.4% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Wholesale Inventories for August, which rose 0.8% monthly, and to US Wholesale Trade Sales, which expanded 0.1% monthly.
US Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending November 4th are predicted at 1.360M. Traders can compare this to US Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending October 28th, reported at -3.115M. US Gasoline Inventories for the week ending November 4th are predicted at -1.080M, and US Distillate Stocks at -0.800M. Traders can compare this to US Gasoline Inventories for the week ending October 28th, reported at -1.257M, and US Distillate Stocks at 0.427M.
Economic data released yesterday confirmed the ongoing slowdown in the US, painting a downbeat start to the fourth quarter. The NFIB Small Business Optimism index and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for October contracted. The trend should continue and strengthen the bear market. Today’s speech by FOMC Fed member Williams should confirm the existing central bank policy of fighting inflation with more interest rate increases and higher terminal rates than previously estimated. His remarks should echo Fed Chairman Powell’s comments following last week’s fourth consecutive 75 basis point interest rate increase, which took them to 4.00%.
Traders will focus on the outcome of yesterday’s midterm elections in the US, where Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives, while the Senate race will come down to the final seat. The latest count has 48 seats for the Democrats and 47 for the Republicans, with five races undeclared, which should be confirmed later today. It will mark the end of President Biden’s free reign, making him a lame-duck president without power, as the Republicans can block his policies.
The forecast for the NASDAQ100 remains bearish following a minor pause, as this equity index closes the gap to the Senkou Span A of its downward shifting Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud. Adding to bearish pressures is the gradually descending Tenkan-sen, which could complete a bearish crossover below its flat Kijun-sen, and attract more sellers. Traders should monitor the CCI following its breakout from extreme oversold territory, as this technical indicator remains below zero and loses upward momentum, suggesting a renewed move to the downside. Can bears keep control over price action in the NASDAQ100 and force this index into its horizontal support area for fresh 2022 and bear market lows? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the NASDAQ100 Index remain inside the or breakdown below the 10,875 to 11,280 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 11.060
- Take Profit Zone: 9.380 – 9.585
- Stop Loss Level: 11.580
Should price action for the NASDAQ100 Index breakout above 11,280, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 11.580
- Take Profit Zone: 12.080 – 12.520
- Stop Loss Level: 11.280
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