Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The US NFP Report for April is predicted to show 238K job additions and an unemployment rate of 3.8%. Forex traders can compare this to the US NFP Report for March, which showed 203K job additions and an unemployment rate of 3.8%. Private Payrolls for April are predicted to show 181K job additions and Manufacturing Payrolls 5K job gains. Forex traders can compare this to Private Payrolls for March, which showed 232K job additions, and Manufacturing Payrolls, which showed 0K job additions. The Average Work Week for April is predicted at 34.4 hours. Forex traders can compare this to the Average Work Week for March, reported at 34.4 hours. Average Hourly Earnings for April are predicted to increase 0.3% monthly and 4.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Average Hourly Earnings for March, which rose 0.3% monthly and 4.1% annualized.
The Final US S&P Global Composite PMI for April is predicted at 50.9, and the Final US S&P Global Services PMI at 50.9. Forex traders can compare this to the US S&P Global Composite PMI for March, reported at 52.1, and the US S&P Global Services PMI at 51.7.
The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for April is predicted at 52.0. Forex traders can compare this to the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for March, reported at 51.4. Traders should focus on the Business Activity, Employment, New Orders, and Prices sub-components.
First-quarter earnings season will shift focus away from inflation and to earnings outlooks. This temporary shift could increase volatility and cause short-term spurts of bullishness. The longer-term outlook remains bearish, as inflation shows signs of intensifying after retreating from a 40+ year peak.
The forecast for the NASDAQ100 remains bearish after this equity index broke down below its previous horizontal support area, turning it into resistance. Short-term volatility could increase with price action trading below its flat Kijun-sen but above its upward-drifting Tenkan-sen. The descending Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud provides longer-term downside momentum, which could increase after the Senkou Span has completed a bearish crossover below the Senkou Span B. Traders should also monitor the CCI following its double breakout from extreme oversold territory and above zero. This technical indicator may challenge extreme overbought territory before reversing. Can bears maintain control over the NASDAQ100 to force price action into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the NASDAQ100 Index remain inside the or breakdown below the 17,535 to 17,700 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 17.650
- Take Profit Zone: 16.575 – 16.825
- Stop Loss Level: 17.980
Should price action for the NASDAQ100 Index breakout above 17,700, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 17.980
- Take Profit Zone: 18.200 – 18.360
- Stop Loss Level: 17.700
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