Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of July 30th are predicted at 259K, and US Continuing Claims for the week of July 23rd are predicted at 1,370K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of July 23rd, reported at 256K, and to US Continuing Claims for the week of July 16th, at 1,359K.
The US Trade Balance for June is predicted at -$80.10B. Forex traders can compare this to the US Trade Balance for May, reported at -$85.60B.
US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending July 29th are predicted at 29B cubic feet. Traders can compare this to US Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending July 22nd, reported at 15B cubic feet.
Traders will watch comments from the Bank of England, which is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points from 1.25% to 1.75%. The British central bank was the first and only to warn of stagflation, as its global counterparts, except the Swiss National Bank, which implemented depression-era capital requirements for its financial system, continue to claim they will bring inflation down and avoid a recession.
Economic data from the US released yesterday came in mixed with a bullish bias. Final PMI data for July confirmed the services sector contraction, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index surprised to the upside with an expansion. The employment sub-component showed a shrinking labor market, while prices remained high but off their June peaks. Factory orders for June clocked in higher than forecast, adding to a bullish session that erased the two-day slide. Earnings remain mixed and suggest a slowing economy and heightened inflationary pressures for the rest of 2022 and 2023.
The forecast for the NASDAQ100 turned bearish after this index approached the end of its bear market rally. Volatility is likely to surge as bulls and bears wrestle for control, but the flat Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen suggest an absence of short-term bullishness. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud shows early signs of a bullish crossover, but given other technical indicators, it could present a false crossover. Traders should monitor the CCI after it has formed a negative divergence in extreme overbought territory. A breakdown below 100 could trigger selling in this equity index. Can bears regain control over the NASDAQ100 and force price action into its horizontal support area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the NASDAQ 100 Index remain inside the or breakdown below the 13,085 to 13,555 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 13.290
- Take Profit Zone: 11.040 – 11.325
- Stop Loss Level: 13.920
Should price action for the NASDAQ 100 Index breakout above 13,555, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 13.920
- Take Profit Zone: 14.300 – 14.475
- Stop Loss Level: 13.555
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