Following Friday’s “goldilocks” NFP report, markets rallied to close a wild first week of the fourth-quarter. Risk remains elevated with the Brexit clock ticking down, trade talks between the US and China set to continue this week and with earnings season set to get going. Gold prices are well supported after the psychological $1,500 mark, will bulls extend the rally and keep pushing this precious metal to the upside? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and grow your balance trade-by-trade.
On Saturday talks between the US and North Korea in Sweden broke down as the North Korean delegation claimed the US showed a lack of flexibility in order to break the deadlock. The US has provided a much more positive perspective of the talks and Sweden has invited both sides back to the negotiating table in two weeks which the US already accepted. Is this a precursor for US-China trade talks later this week and what does this mean for Gold? Today’s fundamental analysis will take a look a price action in both directions.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Gold trades:
- Australian AiG Performance of Construction Index: The Australian AiG Performance of Construction Index for September was reported at 42.6. Forex traders can compare this to the Australian AiG Performance of Construction Index for August which was reported at 44.6.
- Japanese Official Reserve Assets: Japanese Official Reserve Assets for September were reported at $1,322.6B. Forex traders can compare this to Japanese Official Reserve Assets for August which were reported at $1,331.6B.
- Japanese Leading Index and Japanese Coincident Index: The Preliminary Japanese Leading Index for August was reported at 91.7 and the Preliminary Japanese Coincident Index was reported at 99.3. Economists predicted a figure of 91.7 and of 99.4. Forex traders can compare this to the Japanese Leading Index for July which was reported at 93.7 and to the Japanese Coincident Index which was reported at 99.7.
- German Factory Orders: German Factory Orders for August decreased by 0.6% monthly and by 6.7% annualized. Economists predicted a decrease of 0.4% monthly and of 6.6% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to German Factory Orders for July which decreased by 2.1% monthly and by 5.0% annualized.
- UK Halifax House Price Index: The UK Halifax House Price Index for September decreased by 0.4% monthly and increased by 1.1% tri-monthly annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.1% and of 1.6%. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Halifax House Price Index for August which increased by 0.2% monthly and by 1.8% tri-monthly annualized.
- Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence: Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence for October is predicted at -13.0. Forex traders can compare this to Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence for September which was reported at -11.1.
- US Consumer Credit: US Consumer Credit for August is predicted at $15.500B. Forex traders can compare this to US Consumer Credit for July which was reported at $23.294B.
Should price action for Gold remain inside the or breakout above the 1,495.70 to 1,512.45 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1,503.00
- Take Profit Zone: 1,556.70 – 1,579.10
- Stop Loss Level: 1,493.00
Should price action for Gold breakdown below 1,495.70 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1,493.00
- Take Profit Zone: 1,458.90 – 1,469.50
- Stop Loss Level: 1,504.50
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