Forex traders will focus on developments out of the UK as Parliament turned hostile and opposition parties split on how to proceed next. The British Pound has been under pressure, but the GBPUSD stabilized at support after the Trump impeachment inquiry. The US political issues are bigger than that of the UK, will this rally the GBPUSD off of support levels? The sole UK economic data point today showed an improvement in consumer confidence which remains in negative conditions. Will US data provide the next catalyst for this currency pair? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips in profits per month.
US durable goods orders as well as personal income and spending data are expected to move the US Dollar today. Economists expected a plunge in durable goods orders for August while personal income and spending are both called higher and supportive of the economy. How will this impact the GBPUSD? As the Trump impeachment inquiry will play out, the US Dollar could come under additional selling pressure. Which political drama will provide the next spark for the GBPUSD? Today’s fundamental analysis will explore price action in both directions.
Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for British Pound trades:
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence: UK GfK Consumer Confidence for September was reported at -12. Economists predicted a figure of -14. Forex traders can compare this to UK GfK Consumer Confidence for August which was reported at -14.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
- US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders: US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for August are predicted to decrease by 1.2% monthly and Durables Excluding Transportation are predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Durable Goods Orders for July which increased by 2.0% monthly and to Durables Excluding Transportation which decreased by 0.4% monthly. Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for August are predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly and Capital Goods Shipments Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft are predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for July which increased by 0.2% monthly and to Capital Goods Shipments Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft which decreased by 0.6% monthly.
- US Personal Income and Personal Spending: US Personal Income for August is predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly and Personal Spending is predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Personal Income for July which increased by 0.1% monthly and to Personal Spending which increased by 0.6% monthly. Real Personal Spending for August is predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Real Personal Spending for July which were increased by 0.4% monthly. The PCE Deflator for August is predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly and by 1.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the PCE Deflator for July which increased by 0.2% monthly and by 1.4% annualized. The PCE Core Deflator for August is predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly and by 1.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the PCE Core Deflator for July which was increased by 0.2% monthly and by 1.6% annualized.
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Final US Michigan Consumer Sentiment for September is predicted at 92.1. Forex traders can compare this to previous US Michigan Consumer Confidence for September which was reported at 92.0. Final Current Conditions for September are predicted at 106.9 and Final Expectations are predicted at 80.0. Forex traders can compare this to previous Current Conditions for September which were reported at 105.3 and to Expectations which were reported at 79.9.
Should price action for the GBPUSD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.2300 to 1.2380 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.2330
- Take Profit Zone: 1.2580 – 1.2650
- Stop Loss Level: 1.2210
Should price action for the GBPUSD breakdown below 1.2300 the following trade set-up is recommended:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.2210
- Take Profit Zone: 1.1960 – 1.2020
- Stop Loss Level: 1.2300
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