Source: PaxForex Premium Analytics Portal, Fundamental Insight
The final third quarter UK GDP decreased by 0.1% quarterly and increased by 0.3% annualized. Economists predicted a flat reading of 0.0% and a rise of 0.6%. Forex traders can compare this to the second quarter UK GDP, which expanded by 0.2% quarterly and 0.6% annualized. The final third quarter Total Business Investment dropped 3.2% quarterly and increased by 2.3% annualized. Economists predicted a plunge of 4.2% and an increase of 2.8%. Forex traders can compare this to the second quarter of Total Business Investment, which accelerated 1.4% quarterly and 8.0% annualized.
UK Retail Sales for November rose 1.3% monthly and 0.1% annualized. Economists predicted a rise of 0.4% and a decrease of 1.8%. Forex traders can compare this to UK Retail Sales for October, which contracted by 0.3% monthly and 2.5% annualized. UK Core Retail Sales for November increased by 0.3% monthly and 1.3% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 0.4% and a contraction of 1.5%. Forex traders can compare this to UK Core Retail Sales for October, which rose by 0.2% monthly and dropped by 2.1% annualized.
The UK Current Account Balance for the third quarter was -£17.175B. Economists predicted a figure of -£15.000B. Forex traders can compare this to the UK Current Account for the second quarter, reported at -£23.968B.
US Final Building Permits for November are predicted to decrease by 2.5% monthly to 1.460M permits. Forex traders can compare this to US Final Building Permits for October, which rose by 1.8% monthly to 1.498M permits.
US Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for November are predicted to increase by 1.7% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Durable Goods Orders for October, which plunged by 5.4% monthly, and Durables Excluding Transportation, which were flat at 0.0% monthly. Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for November are predicted to expand by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Excluding Aircraft for October, which decreased by 0.1% monthly.
US Personal Income for November is predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly and Personal Spending by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Personal Income for October, which rose by 0.2% monthly, and Personal Spending by 0.2% monthly. The PCE Deflator for November is predicted flat at 0.0% monthly and expand by 2.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the PCE Deflator for October, which was flat at 0.0% monthly and increased by 3.0% annualized. The PCE Core Deflator for November is predicted to rise by 0.2% monthly and 3.4% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the PCE Core Deflator for October, which increased by 0.2% monthly and 3.5% annualized.
The final US Michigan Consumer Sentiment for December is predicted at 69.4. Forex traders can compare this to US Michigan Consumer Confidence for November, reported at 61.3. Final Current Conditions for December are predicted at 74.0, and Final Expectations are predicted at 66.4. Forex traders can compare this to Current Conditions for November, reported at 68.3, and Expectations, reported at 56.8. Final US Michigan Inflation Expectations for December are predicted at 3.1%, and Final US Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations at 2.8%. Forex traders can compare this to Final US Michigan Inflation Expectations for November, reported at 4.5%, and Final US Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations at 3.2%.
US New Home Sales for November are predicted at 695K new homes. Forex traders can compare this to US New Home Sales for October, reported at 679K new homes.
The forecast for the GBP/USD remains bullish, driven by its upward-shifting Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud. Short-term volatility may rise after the Kijun-sen and the Tenkan-sen flatlined. Traders should also monitor the CCI following its breakdown from extreme overbought territory. This technical indicator is above zero, with rising bullish momentum and plenty of upside potential. Can bulls maintain control over the GBP/USD and push price action into its horizontal resistance area? Subscribe to the PaxForex Daily Fundamental Analysis and earn over 5,000 pips per month.
Should price action for the GBP/USD remain inside the or breakout above the 1.2665 to 1.2735 zone, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Long Position
- Entry Level: Long Position @ 1.2700
- Take Profit Zone: 1.2865 – 1.2925
- Stop Loss Level: 1.2610
Should price action for the GBP/USD breakdown below 1.2665, PaxForex recommends the following trade set-up:
- Timeframe: D1
- Recommendation: Short Position
- Entry Level: Short Position @ 1.2610
- Take Profit Zone: 1.2460 – 1.2500
- Stop Loss Level: 1.2665
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